TFM Morning Update 07-19-2024

CORN

The corn market is trading quietly higher near the top end of a tight 3 1/2 cent range as it continues to consolidate from Monday’s drop on little fresh news.
Weekly export sale’s reported yesterday were a mixed bag. New sales for old crop came in below expectations at 17.2 mb, while new crop sales were just above expectations at 19.1 mb. Total old crop sales remain a solid 38% above last year.
There is some talk that with the generally favorable weather, the market may be trading a US yield closer to 184 bpa versus the 181 the USDA is currently projecting.
In yesterday’s trade funds covered part of their net short position, buying an estimated 6,000 corn futures contracts. This brought their estimated net short position to 361,000 contracts.

With little to move the market significantly in either direction, soybeans are trading moderately higher as they follow through on yesterday’s firm close, with support from higher soybean meal and oil.
Export sales for soybeans came in mostly as expected with new sales totaling 13.2 mb for old crop. New crop sales fell at the upper end of expectations at 13.8 mb. Total old crop sales remain 14% lower than last year.
The USDA did report an 18.7 mb flash sale for new crop soybeans, and a 150,000 mt sale of soybean meal for 24/25, both to unknown destinations. (possibly China?)
Managed funds were relatively quiet in yesterday’s trade, buying an estimated 3,000 soybean futures contracts, which reduced their total estimated net short position to 177,000 contracts.

The wheat complex is trading moderately higher across all three classes of US wheat as traders likely cover short positions.
Lending some support to prices is Matif wheat, which is trading higher. With most of the French harvest in the bin, the quality is below average and giving a boost to prices.
The most recent drop in wheat prices has spurred new demand on the world market. While this is beneficial in the big picture, the majority of the business has been filled by Russia with their cheaper export prices.
US export sales for the week ending July 11, came in toward the top end of expectations at 21.3 mb. Total commitments of 284 mb for the 24/25 marketing year are ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA’s goal, and 48% ahead of last year.
Managed funds’ activity was balanced in yesterday’s session with estimated purchases and sales net even in Chicago wheat. Their estimated net short position in Chicago wheat remains at 82,000 contracts.

Scott Masters