TFM Morning Update 07-20-2023


  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning despite fresh attacks by Ukraine on Odessa last night, with each attack reportedly more damaging than the last.
  • A few very dry areas in Minnesota received rainfall in the past 48 hours which has eased some concerns for that area.
  • Dec corn appears to be meeting some resistance around the 5.60 area as producers step in to make cash sales to reward this rally.
  • US ethanol stocks rose by 2.2% to 23.166 m bbl, and analysts were expecting 22.669 mln bbl. Plant production was at 1.07 m b/d compared to the average guess of 1.042 m.


  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower as soybean meal falls but soybean oil trades higher along with higher crude oil.
  • At some point today, the National Weather Service will release their forecast for August. This should have some effect on prices with August weather being critical for soybean yield.
  • The USDA attaché has put the Argentinian soy crop at 21.25 mmt which is 3.75 mmt below the most recent USDA estimate.
  • Chinese June soybean imports from Brazil were up 32% on the year as China stocks up on cheap soy products. China imported 9.53 mmt of oilseed compared to 7.24 mmt a year earlier.


  • Wheat has turned lower this morning but was higher overnight after reports of a third attack on the Ukrainian port city of Odessa came in and are said to be even worse than the attack the previous night.
  • With the grain deal off the table, Russia is wasting no time ramping up attacks on Ukraine and seems to be targeting port cities on the Black Sea to limit their exports.
  • The previous night’s attack on Odessa destroyed 60,000 tons of grain that were being stored there, and more was likely destroyed last night.
  • Technically, December wheat may have found resistance at the 200-day moving average ay 7.60 because futures slightly exceeded that level before backing off lower.


Amanda Brill

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