TFM Morning Update 07-21-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after a rally that lasted five days that was driven by dry weather and the Russian attacks on Ukraine’s port cities.
Yesterday the National Weather Service released a 30-day forecast which showed lower temperatures and above-normal chances of precipitation for the Corn Belt.
The 7-day forecast is expected to be rough with little rain expected throughout the Corn Belt and higher-than-normal temperatures.
After the recent rains of the past few weeks, the US drought monitor showed moderate to intense drought falling by 9 points from the previous week to 55%. The previous high was 70%.

Soybeans are trading lower along with soybean meal, and soybean is lower with the exception of the August contract which is slightly higher.
Yesterday’s 30-day forecast which showed more rain and less heat was more of a suppressant on soybean’s rally as the August timeframe is very important weather-wise.
Palm oil futures have rallied nearly 23% since the lows made in late May, and soybean oil is up about 50% in that same time, so a correction is not surprising.
Indonesian palm oil exports rose by 4.5% month over month to 2.23 mmt in May from 2.13 mmt in April as output increased.

Wheat is trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way followed by Chicago. News of attacks out of the Black Sea seems to have worn off as futures got overbought.
Ukrainian exports out of the Black Sea are over at this point with Russia threatening any vessels found there, and they have also started conducting live fire exercises in the Black Sea.
The damage done by Russia’s drone and missile strikes on all of the Ukrainian port cities is not completely known, but Odesa seemingly got the worst of it with large amounts of grain destroyed.
The IGC raised global grain production and the stockpiles estimate with world grain production now seen at 2.297 billion tons, but the wheat crop itself has shrunk.

Amanda Brill