TFM Morning Update 07-24-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher to start the day as support from the U.S.-Japan trade deal helps prices. Japan is the second largest buyer of US corn and imported 73% of its needs from the US in 23.24.
US ethanol stocks rose by 3.4% to 24.44 m bbl from 23.635m bbl last week. This was above analyst expectations. Plant production was at 1.078m b/d which was below the survey guess of 1.082m.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 600k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 975k tons. This would compare to 663k last week and 1,077k a year ago at this time.

Soybeans are higher to start the day with the November contract still consolidating among all its major moving averages. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as is crude oil.
Positive trade deals with the Philippines and Japan have been slightly supportive, and there are trade talks occurring with China as well, but the good conditions in the Corn Belt and strong crop ratings have kept soybeans from rallying.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 400k and 800k tons with an average guess of 600k. This would compare to 801k last week and 918k a year ago at this time.

All three wheat classes are trading higher along with the rest of the grain complex, but wheat prices have traded sideways for around a week now. Harvest pressure is having trouble driving already low prices lower.
U.S. ND wheat tour pegs first-day yield at 50 bpa (vs 52 last year, 45 avg); U.S. carryout seen at 895M bu with higher exports offsetting lower feed use.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 250k and 500k tons with the average guess at 388k tons. This would compare to 494k a week ago and 309k last year.

Amanda Brill