TFM Morning Update 07-25-2024

CORN

  • Corn is unchanged to slightly higher this morning after yesterday’s trade where December futures rallied up to $4.23-3/4 at midday before fading into the close. Rallies have been difficult to sustain as producers take the opportunity to make sales.
  • Weather remains mostly favorable with above normal rain in the 10-day forecast, but temperatures are expected to rise sharply in the Corn Belt. The heat is expected to be the worst in Kansas, South Dakota, and southern Iowa.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report have corn sales in a range between 475k and 1,200k tons with an average guess of 793k tons. On Tuesday, a sale of 200,000 tons of corn was reported to unknown for 24/25.

SOYBEANS

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning after futures met resistance at the 20-day moving average yesterday and ended the day lower. Soybeans are still higher on the week so far but have given up a chunk of their gains. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
  • As in corn, soybeans have had trouble sustaining rallies, and a forecast showing spotty rainfall in the eastern Corn Belt should set up a situation in which yields will be impressive as we head into pod fill.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report show soybean sales in a range between 300k and 1,300k tons with an average guess of 930k tons. This would be higher than last week’s sales as cheap US soybeans are becoming more competitive globally.

WHEAT

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way lower as spring wheat conditions continue looking promising. In Chicago wheat, prices are just 18 cents off their contract lows.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report are in a range between 300k and 628k tons of wheat with an average guess of 493k tons. This would be below last week’s sales as US exports struggle to gain much traction.
  • Yesterday was the second day of the North Dakota wheat tour, and yields for hard red spring wheat were found to be significantly higher than last year, especially after recent rainfall. Yield potential reportedly averaged 56 bpa after eight stops in Ward, Mountrail, and Burke counties.

Author

Amanda Brill

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