TFM Morning Update 07-25-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning as trade continues to expect a huge crop. The August forecast seems to be getting less severe as far as the heat and precipitation.
Yesterday’s export sales were decent at 25.3 million bushels of old crop corn sales which was well above last week’s marketing year low of 3.8 mb. Shipments of 41.7 mb were below the weekly average needed. Top destinations were to unknown, Mexico, and Japan.
US ethanol stocks rose by 3.4% to 24.44 m bbl from 23.635m bbl last week. This was above analyst expectations. Plant production was at 1.078m b/d which was below the survey guess of 1.082m.

Soybeans are trading lower with the November contract now below all major moving averages. Trade has been mostly rangebound to lower throughout the week. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
Positive trade deals with the Philippines and Japan have been slightly supportive, and there are trade talks occurring with China as well, but the good conditions in the Corn Belt and strong crop ratings have kept soybeans from rallying.
Yesterday’s export sales were disappointing with old crop shipments at just 13.3 million bushels, below the 17.1 mb needed each week. Top buyers were Mexico, the Netherlands, and Egypt.

All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day as the higher dollar pressures the entire grain market. Funds may also be taking some profit ahead of the weekend.
The U.S. North Dakota wheat tour concluded and pegged the final 3-day total weighted average yield estimate at 48.3 bpa from 307 fields. The average spring wheat yield was at 49.0 bpa and was from 292 fields. This compared to last year’s yields of 53.8 and 54.5 bpYesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales at 26.2 million bushels which was the largest weekly total for the season in two months. Top buyers were Indonesia, Taiwan, and Mexico.a respectively.
Yesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales at 26.2 million bushels which was the largest weekly total for the season in two months. Top buyers were Indonesia, Taiwan, and Mexico.

Amanda Brill