TFM Morning Update 07-26-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning, but the general trend so far this week has seen prices dip in the morning before moving higher into the end of the day. At this point, December corn is set to post a 14-cent gain on the week.
Weather remains mostly favorable with above normal rain in the 10-day forecast, but temperatures are expected to rise sharply in the Corn Belt. The heat is expected to be the worst in Kansas, South Dakota, and southern Iowa.
Over the past 5 days, funds are estimated to have bought back 36,000 contracts of corn in a departure from their selling which had brought them to a new record net short position.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning but have also been starting the days this week weaker before typically posting higher closes. The November contract has been unable to take out its 20-day moving average so far, but futures are on track for a 36-cent gain on the week.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning, but yesterday, soybean meal was up significantly thanks to strong exports that mainly went to the Philippines and unknown destinations. Soybean oil has been pressured by the downturn in crude and palm oil.
In soybeans, funds are estimated to have bought back 21,500 contracts over the past 5 days after they reached a new record net short position previously. They are likely covering some of these shorts ahead of August with a potentially drier forecast in some areas.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago slightly lower and KC and Minneapolis trading higher despite the Spring Wheat Tour showing impressive yields. September Chicago wheat is set to post a loss on the week of 6 cents.
Yesterday, the Wheat Quality Council’s Spring Wheat and Durum Tour was finished with the final 3-day total weighted average all-wheat yield estimate at a record high 53.8 bpa. The average spring wheat yield was estimated at 54.5 bpa. Last year, that number was 47.4 bpa.
While North Dakota’s weather has been very beneficial to spring wheat, the Canadian Prairies are very dry and wildfires have been rampant in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba where yields are expected to be lower.

Amanda Brill