TFM Morning Update 07-27-2023


  • Corn is trading just slightly higher this morning but was lower overnight as weather forecasts remain mixed with showers for some parts of the Corn Belt but mostly hot and dry.
  • US ethanol stocks rose by 0.3% to 23.228m bbl, and analysts were expecting 23.17 mln bbl. Plant production was 1.09 m b/d compared to survey averages of 1.058.
  • Last night, Russia struck port infrastructure in Ukraine’s Odesa region again, killing a security guard and damaging a cargo terminal.
  • A severe dry spell in Indonesia has spurred farmers there to switch from rice to corn with the government planning to import rice.


  • Soybeans are higher this morning and overnight the Nov contract got 13 cents away to reaching the contract high at 14.48. Soybean meal is higher but soybean oil is bear spread with the two front months lower and deferred months higher.
  • Analysts have raised their projections for 2024 palm oil prices on tight supplies amid the El Nino weather pattern. This could be supportive for soybean oil.
  • The Midwest is expected to have two more days of extreme heat before temperatures drop, and there is not much rain forecast outside of Wisconsin and Michigan over the next 7-days.
  • The National Weather Service and DTN’s forecasts for August are a bit at odds with NOAA expecting above-normal rains in the southern Midwest while DTN sees better chances in the western Plains with above-normal temperatures. The USDA’s last yield guess was 52.0 bpa which may be too high.


  • Wheat is trading higher this morning with KC leading the way up followed by Minn after Russia struck the port city of Odesa again and the crop tour data is released.
  • Day 2 of the crop tour covers North Dakota which was hit by drought and therefore shows an average yield of  45.7 bpa compared to last year’s tour data of 47.7 bpa.
  • Russia has said that it will provide free grain to six African countries over the next three to four months in the amounts of between 25,000 and 50,000 tons each.
  • Agritel sees France soft wheat production up 3% year over year in 2023 with production at 34.8 mmt, 1.1 mmt higher than the previous year.


Amanda Brill

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