TFM Morning Update 07-29-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after selling off on Friday as well as a result of more moderate summer temperatures being forecast over the next two weeks. Temperatures will still be hot and dry in the short term, but that is not unexpected for this time of year.
Later today, the USDA will release its crop progress report. While the central Corn Belt has been in very good shape, states on the fringe have struggles more with weather. The upcoming heat is slated to affect Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota most significantly.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying corn as of July 23. They bought back 24,847 contracts which reduced their net short position to 318,549 contracts, but were likely sellers of around 14,500 contracts on Friday.

Soybeans are trading sharply lower to start the week with the November contract reaching its lowest levels since February 2021 and the September contract making a new contract low. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning.
Last week, a sale of 264,000 mt and another of 510,000 mt of soybeans were reported to unknown destinations for the new crop marketing year. There is a good chance that those soybeans were bought by China as the recent selloff has put US beans between an 18 and 22 dollar discount out of the Gulf when compared to FOB beans in Brazil.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of July 23. They bought back 22,091 contracts which reduced their net short position to 163,659 contracts.

All three classes of wheat are trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex with Chicago wheat leading the way lower. Both September and December Chi and KC wheat have made new contract lows while Minn wheat is 10 cents off its contract low.
Spring wheat conditions have been impressive especially compared to last year. Last Sunday, the entire spring wheat crop was rated 77% good to excellent while Minnesota and the Dakotas held ratings above 80%.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 702 contracts of Chicago wheat leaving them net short 75,184 contracts. They bought back 3,030 contracts of KC wheat leaving them net short 40,866 contracts.

Amanda Brill