TFM Morning Update 07-30-2025

CORN

  • Corn futures are fractionally higher this morning after testing recent lows yesterday.
  • The past two nights brought severe weather to parts of the western Corn Belt. While high winds caused damage to buildings and structures, early reports suggest crop damage was mostly limited.
  • USDA reported a private sale of 225,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2025‑26 marketing year yesterday.

SOYBEANS

  • Soybean futures are slightly lower to start the day, as ongoing moisture and cooler temperatures across much of the Midwest continue to support strong yield potential.
  • Traders remain optimistic that U.S. and Chinese officials will agree to a 90-day tariff truce, easing concerns about a further escalation in the trade conflict.
  • Soybeans have closed lower in six of the last seven sessions, as traders grow increasingly concerned that the upcoming August WASDE report could show higher-than-expected yields. A larger crop, combined with weak export demand, raises the risk of a heavier carryout.

WHEAT

  • Wheat futures are trading near unchanged this morning, with a mixed tone across the three classes as markets await fresh direction.
  • Wheat traders are monitoring the upcoming August 1 tariff deadline set by President Trump. A failure to reach progress in U.S.-China trade talks could lead to renewed tariffs, potentially dampening export prospects and adding pressure to wheat prices.
  • USDA Crop Progress for the week showed U.S. winter wheat harvest at 80%, just 1 point behind the five-year average. Spring wheat is 95% headed, 3 points below normal, with harvest just beginning at 1% complete.

Author

Keegan Madigan

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