TFM Morning Update 07-31-2023


  • Corn is trading lower this morning as temperatures begin to decline from last week’s highs and rain chances for the Corn Belt improve over the next 7 days.
  • Crop conditions will be released this afternoon and between last week’s heat and dryness, it is expected that corn’s good to excellent rating will fall from last week’s 57%.
  • In Brazil, the corn harvest is advancing quickly which is putting pressure on prices globally. As of July 22, 47.9% of the national crop has been harvested.
  • Last week, funds were buyers of corn and bought 73,529 contracts which took them from a net short position to a net long position of 26,603 contracts.


  • Soybeans are significantly lower this morning along with soybean meal and oil as the 8 to 14-day forecast is showing a cooler, wetter pattern that would be beneficial for yields.
  • In Brazil, demand for soybeans internationally has been rising with their discounted prices. Processors there are showing higher needs for the raw material in the spot market because of expectations for higher demand abroad.
  • Brazilian 2024 soybean meal production is expected to reach 42.3 mmt, 3% above the previous year. Total soy crushing is seen at 55 mmt for 2024.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as buyers last week, increasing their net long position by 24,925 contracts to 120,739 contracts.


  • Wheat futures are lower this morning with Chicago leading the way despite more military activity reported in the way of a strike on another grain facility in Kherson.
  • Traders seem unmoved by happenings in Russia and Ukraine lately and as a result, much of the war premium has dropped off of futures prices.
  • SovEcon raised the Russian wheat crop forecast to 87.1 mmt as yields are now expected to improve. The previous projection for the Russian crop was 86.8 mmt, and this news is likely adding bearish pressure.
  • Friday’s CFTC showed funds buying back 14,086 contracts which still maintains a short position but decreased it to 40,332 contracts.


Amanda Brill

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