TFM Morning Update 07-31-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning with the December contract just 4 cents off contract lows. While exports have been solid, trade is focused on potentially strong yields.
US ethanol stocks rose by 1.1% to 24.716m bbl which was above analyst expectations. Plant production was seen at 1.096m b/d which was above the trade guess.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,000k and 1,900k tons with an average guess of 1,517k tons. This would compare to 1,377k last week and 879k a year ago.

Soybeans are trading lower again this morning and are on track for a fifth consecutively lower close. Today is first notice day for August soybean futures. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
Soybeans have closed lower in six of the last seven sessions, as traders grow increasingly concerned that the upcoming August WASDE report could show higher-than-expected yields. A larger crop, combined with weak export demand, raises the risk of a heavier carryout.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 250k and 900k tons with an average guess of 517k tons. This would compare to 400k last week and 884k a year ago.

Wheat futures are mixed to start the day with all three classes near unchanged. Funds have aggressively sold wheat this week as they look for larger Russian production and slow export sales.
Bangladesh will reportedly purchase 220,000 tons of US wheat to cool tariff tensions. Steep tariffs were imposed by President Trump, and the country looks to see these lowered.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 300k and 700k tons with an average guess of 525k tons. This would compare to 712k last week and 287k a year ago at this time.

Amanda Brill