TFM Morning Update 08-01-2022

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

Wheat prices overnight are down 15 1/4 in SRW, down 14 3/4 in HRW, down 13 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 12 1/2; Soybeans down 18 1/2; Soymeal down $0.65; Soyoil down 1.28.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 32 1/2 in SRW, up 27 3/4 in HRW, up 18 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 28 1/2; Soybeans up 105; Soymeal up $1.50; Soyoil up 6.92.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 3% in SRW, up 7% in HRW, down -9% in HRS; Corn is up 2%; Soybeans up 22%; Soymeal up 20%; Soyoil up 22%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans up 164 yuan; Soymeal up 64; Soyoil up 138; Palm oil up 116; Corn up 4 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 216 ringgit (-5.04%) at 4073.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,653 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 164 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 29 were: SRW Wheat up 2,592 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,414, Corn up 7,925, Soybeans up 1,509, Soymeal up 2,393, Soyoil down 1,466.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers moved through the region over the weekend and will continue to do so for the next couple of weeks while disturbances ride the top of the ridge through Canada. When fronts and showers are not moving through, temperatures will be above normal and stress to crops will be more likely with declining soil moisture.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers went through over the weekend and a stripe of heavier rain fell from the Texas Panhandle through northern Oklahoma. With a ridge firmly implanted in the region for the next couple of weeks, hotter and drier conditions can be expected, putting stress on both plants and animals.

Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers went through far southern and western areas over the weekend while it was dry elsewhere. A few fronts will be moving through the region over the next couple of weeks, bringing some showers and thunderstorms through, but likely being widely scattered instead of persistent and widespread. Some areas will receive beneficial precipitation while others will be left out. When showers miss, the heat will increase, causing stress.

Canadian Prairies Forecast:  Scattered showers went through over the weekend. Though not all areas were hit, showers did roll through some of the drier areas in southern Alberta and central Saskatchewan. With the storm track continuing through the region through early next week, multiple chances for showers and mixed temperatures will be beneficial for filling out wheat and canola.

 Europe Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Scattered showers went through central and eastern areas of the continent over the weekend. With that system departing, heat will be building up across much of the continent this week, though a cold front will bring temperatures down for northern areas at the end of the week going into the weekend. Heat and a lack of showers will stress some corn areas, though wheat will continue to have more favorable harvest conditions.

Black Sea Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: A ridge is settling over the region, but is being impinged on the western end by a system moving through. That system will split into two with one traveling into the northern Black Sea, bringing scattered showers all week long to eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia. The showers will continue to benefit developing to reproductive corn and sunflowers, but make conditions more difficult for wheat harvest. Where showers do not occur, temperatures will be higher, hastening crop development.

The player sheet for 7/29 had funds: net sellers of 5,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 8,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 7,500 soyoil.


  • SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. new-crop soybeans to unknown destinations.
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought around 40,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from Canada in an international tender on Friday
  • FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER PASSED: An importer group in the Philippines is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in a tender for about 100,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat and around 100,000 tonnes of feed barley which closed earlier this week


  • CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Brazil, Argentina or South Africa
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
  • WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Sunday. The tender sought a nominal 50,000 tonnes but Algeria often buys considerably more in its tenders than the nominal volume sought.
  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 92,100 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States, China and other origins
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
  • WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 50,910 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States


  • Basis bids for corn shipped to the U.S. Gulf Coast for export drifted lower on Friday, reflecting increased farmer grain sales this week as corn futures bounced from multi-month lows, traders said.
    • For soybeans, spot barge bids firmed slightly after weakening earlier this week. Demand for high-priced supplies of old-crop soy has eroded as the new-crop harvest approaches in far southern reaches of the crop belt.
    • CIF corn barges loaded in July were bid Friday at around 145 cents over September corn, down a penny from Thursday. November corn barges traded at 106 cents over December futures.
    • Corn export premiums for August loadings held steady at around 170 cents over futures.
    • For soybeans, CIF barges loaded in July were bid at about 107 cents over August futures, up 1 cent from Thursday. Barges loaded in first-half August traded at 100 cents over futures, and full-August loadings traded at 93 cents over futures. Some brokers were rolled their August barge bids to November, quoting bids at 255 cents over November futures.
    • FOB export premiums for August soybean loadings held at around 155 cents over August.
  • Spot basis bids for corn were steady to weaker at elevators in the U.S. Midwest on Friday, grain dealers said.
    • Bids dropped by 20 cents a bushel in Decatur, Illinois, and by 5 cents a bushel in Burns Harbor, Indiana, dealers said.
    • The soy basis was mostly steady at interior elevators and processors. A river terminal in Morris, Illinois, lowered its bid by 10 cents a bushel.
    • Some farmers increased sales due to rising prices, a dealer said, pressuring basis.
  • Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat were steady at rail and truck market terminals across the southern U.S. Plains on Friday, grain dealers said.
    • Farmer sales were light as they wait for higher cash prices, a Kansas dealer said.
  • Spot basis bids for soybeans fell at river terminals in the U.S. Midwest on Friday morning.
    • Bids were steady to weaker at processors, as demand for soy suffered from a seasonal slowdown in the pace of crushing, traders said.
    • Farmer selling has increased as futures rallied this week on concerns about hot, dry weather threatening U.S. harvests, traders said.
  • Spot cash millfeed values firmed in several U.S. locations on Friday, supported by brisk demand for supplemental livestock feed in the Plains and portions of the Midwest where hot and dry weather has stressed grazing pastures, dealers said.
    • Offers in the interior Kansas/Oklahoma market jumped by $40 per ton from a week ago. “Usage has popped,” one millfeeds broker said.
    • Demand for feed in the U.S. midsection also lifted bids and offers in some adjacent markets including the “central states” region spanning Illinois through western Pennsylvania.
    • The exception to the firm trend was Buffalo, New York, where flour mills were generating ample byproduct supplies and good summertime pasture growth curbed demand for feed.
  • Spot basis offers for U.S. soymeal were mostly steady at rail and truck market processors on Friday while demand was routine, dealers said.
    • Truck market offers rose by $3 per ton in Frankfort, Indiana, and fell by $10 per ton in Council Bluffs, Iowa, dealers said.
    • FOB offers increased.
    • Brazil on Thursday confirmed that China had opened its market to soybean meal produced in the South American country, adding that shipments would begin when certain bureaucratic hurdles are removed.

CROP SURVEY: US Soybean Crush and Corn for Ethanol

The following is from a Bloomberg survey of six anlaysts.

  • Soybean crush seen at 174.6m bu in June, a 7.9% rise from a year ago
  • Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of June seen at 2.341b lbs, up from 2.101b
  • Corn used in ethanol production seen up 2.3% y/y to 449.9m bu
  • The USDA is scheduled to release its June Fats and Oils report along with the Grain Crushings report on Aug. 1 at 3pm

First Grain Ship Leaves Ukraine for Lebanon in Key Milestone

  • WFP plans to purchase 30,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat
  • The Razoni leaves loaded with corn under safe-corridor deal

Ukraine made its first shipment of grain since Russia’s invasion, marking a small but crucial first step toward unlocking the millions of tons of grains piling up in the country and boosting global food supplies.

The Razoni, a cargo ship loaded with 26,527 tons of corn, left for Lebanon on Monday morning, according to the United Nations, which together with Turkey helped broker the deal to restart exports. Ukraine Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov confirmed the departure and said there were 16 other ships in the greater Odesa region waiting for their turn to sail.

Ukraine is one of the biggest wheat, corn and vegetable-oil suppliers and the loss of exports via its Black Sea ports has shaken the global food trade and raised the threat of a global food crisis. The Razoni represents a milestone achievement under the July 22 agreement to create safe shipping corridors through three of Ukraine’s ports, although it’s unclear how quickly exports can ramp up.

Scores of ships are stuck in the ports dotted along the Black Sea and are expected to begin moving out in “caravans” if all goes well. However, shipowners will have to secure insurance for cargoes and vessels, and also find enough crew to sail them. A Russian attack on Odesa’s sea port with cruise missiles hours after signing the deal raised questions earlier about its commitment.

“Ensuring that existing grain and foodstuffs can move to global markets is a humanitarian imperative,” a spokesman for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement. “The secretary-general hopes that this will be the first of many commercial ships moving in accordance with the initiative.”

The World Food Programme is also planning to purchase, load and ship an initial 30,000 tons of wheat out of Ukraine on a UN-chartered vessel, with more details expected in the coming days, the UN said.

Ukraine expects to reach full throughput capacity for transporting agricultural goods within weeks, Kubrakov wrote.

The Razoni is expected to arrive in Istanbul on Tuesday, according to Turkey’s Defence Ministry. The agreement provided for monitoring by a joint coordination center in Istanbul, with representatives of all the parties.


Strategie Grains cuts EU sunseed forecast as drought builds

Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for this year’s European Union sunflower seed crop to 10.35 million tonnes from 10.87 million forecast a month ago, the consultancy said, citing the impact of drought.

The reduced projection would be level with last year’s production, it said in an oilseed report.

Strategie Grains had previously projected that the sunflower seed crop would surpass last year’s record volume, helped by a sharp increase in planting this year.

However, drought conditions exacerbated by heatwaves were hurting yield prospects for sunflower as well as the EU’s smaller soybean crop, it said.

“Sunseed and soybean crops have been plagued by water stress, a matter of particular concern in Hungary, Italy and Romania,” Strategie Grains said.

“In addition, early results from sunseed harvesting operations in Spain are very poor.”

For soybeans, the consultancy lowered its 2022 EU production forecast to 2.78 million tonnes from 2.98 million, though that would be 2.9% above last year’s level.

Despite the reduced harvest outlook, EU sunflower seed supply is expected to be balanced in the 2022/23 season, partly reflecting strong imports from Ukraine, it said.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted Ukrainian sunflower seed crushing for vegetable oil exports, leading to a shift towards exporting seed, Strategie Grains said.

However, the sunflower seed supply situation could evolve in the coming weeks depending on weather conditions in Europe and the extent to which Ukrainian exports are boosted by resumption of sea shipments under a deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, the consultancy added. (Full Story)

For rapeseed, the EU’s main oilseed crop, Strategie Grains raised its estimate of this year’s harvest to 18.47 million tonnes from 18.33 million previously, now 8.8% above last year’s level.

However, EU supply in 2022/23 is expected to remain near the tight levels of 2021/22 owing to high demand because of attractive margins for rapessed crushing, Strategie Grains said.


Monsoon-Sown Rice Area Drops 13% in India, Farm Ministry Says

Farmers in India, the world’s second-biggest rice grower, have planted the crop on 23.16 million hectares (57.2 million acres) of land as of Friday, a decline from 26.71 million a year earlier, according to the farm ministry.

  • The area allocated for sugarcane is little changed at 5.45 million hectares so far this year, while cotton planting edged higher to 11.77 million hectares, the ministry said Friday.
  • The country’s June-September monsoon rains are 9% above average, according to the India Meteorological Department. Monsoon crop sowing normally begins in late May and peaks in July, while harvesting starts in late September.


SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Economic crisis in Argentina concerns; values rise in both the USA and BR

The current economic crisis in Argentina is leading to speculations of lower supply of soybean and its by-products for export. To constrain the inflation, the federal government is considering reducing international shipments or even raising once again the export tariffs on soybean products, which was last raised in March/22. It is important to highlight that Argentina is the number one exporter of soybean meal and soy oil and the third major soybean exporter in the world.

Thus, agents in Brazil and in the United States expect to get higher shares of by-products exports, which would result in valuations in both countries.

At CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), the first contract for soybean (Aug/22) rose by a staggering 13.4% between July 21 and 28, to USD 16.0925/bushel (USD 35.48/60-kilo bag) on Thursday, 28. The same contracts for soybean meal and soy oil rose by 12.7% and 12.4% in the last seven days, closing at USD 489.70 per short-ton (USD 539.80/ton) and at USD 0.6584/pound (USD 1,451.51/ton) on July 28.

International valuations were boosted by the dollar depreciation abroad, which makes the commodities from the USA more attractive to importers. The American currency dropped by a steep 6% between July 21 and 28, to BRL 5.161 on Thursday, 28.

Prices abroad were also influenced by irregular rainfall in the major soybean-producing regions in the USA – if rains continue low next month – when crops will be in the major developing state –, the productivity of the 2022/23 crop may decrease.

BRAZILIAN SOYBEAN – Influenced by the scenario abroad, quotations have increased in Brazil too, where the competition between Brazilian and international purchasers increased. However, some sellers opted for trading soybean in their own regions rather than trading it at ports, due to the current high freight costs.

In the Brazilian spot market, between July 21 and 28, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá (PR) and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná rose by 3.6% and 2.6%, respectively, closing at BRL 192.90 (USD 37.38)/60-kilo bag and at BRL 186.11 (USD 36.06)/bag on July 28. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices increased by 2% in the the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and by 2.2% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

Domestic quotations were also boosted the valuation of the export premiums for soybean in Brazil, which increased despite the rises abroad, even setting a record – when considered the August contract traded in the same period of previous years.


CORN/CEPEA: Farmers leave the market; quotations resume rising in BR

Corn prices have resumed rising in many Brazilian regions, such as São Paulo State, reflecting the valuations abroad, higher demand for the national cereal and the current low stocks of domestic purchasers. Thus, farmers have not been selling large batches of corn, expecting to receive higher revenue next month.

In Campinas (SP), the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn has increased every day this week – between July 21 and 28, it rose by 1.2%, to BRL 81.78 (USD 15.84)/bag on Thursday, 28. In the Mogiana (SP), values rose by 6.2%.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn prices increased by 1.6% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and by 0.9% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). However, between June 30 and July 28, quotations dropped by 4.5% and 4.1%, respectively.

At the port of Santos (SP), values increased by 0.9% in the last seven days, while at the port of Paranaguá (PR), prices dropped by 1%, to BRL 84.46/bag on July 28.

Valuations were limited by some purchasers, who affirm to have stocks enough for the mid-term. These agents are based on the fact that warehouses are already full in central-western Brazil. However, it is important to highlight that a high volume of corn has been sold through contracts.

The dollar depreciation against the Real also constrained higher price rises – the American currency dropped by a steep 6%, to BRL 5.161.

CROPS – The weather in Brazil has been favoring crop activities. According to Conab, by July 23, 59.6% of the national area had been harvested, against 49% in the previous week and 41% in the same period last year.


WFP to Purchase and Ship 30k Tons of Wheat From Ukraine: UN

World Food Programme plans to purchase, load and ship 30,000 tons of wheat out of Ukraine on a UN-chartered vessel, spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General says in a statement.

  • Move is “in line with the humanitarian spirit” of initiative to allow ships to sail from Ukraine’s ports
  • NOTE: The first grains ship left Ukraine for Lebanon on Monday in a key milestone toward unlocking the millions of tons of grains piling up in the country


Malaysia’s July 1-31 Palm Oil Exports 1,227,118 Tons: AmSpec

Shipments rise 4% m/m from 1,179,545 tons exported during June 1-30, according to AmSpec Agri.


Indonesia Seeks to Boost Corn Output Using More Land, GMO Crops

Govt sees corn output reaching 25m tons by year-end at 27% water content, said Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto in a briefing on Monday.


US Urea, Ammonia Prices Strengthen; Producers Launch MOP Fill

Urea prices moved up at New Orleans as global markets strengthened and near-term domestic supply tightened. Ammonia prices were up at Tampa and for fall prepay offers in the Midwest as production cuts mount in Europe. Nutrien and Mosaic launched a muriate of potash (MOP) fill program at $760-$765 a short ton at Midwest prices, down $30-$35 from last week’s high.


Nitrogen Prices Rebound as Supplies Tighten

Urea prices rebounded at New Orleans (NOLA) and inland as global markets strengthened and domestic inventories shrunk due to an increase in exports. NOLA urea jumped to $580 a short ton (st), from $465 at the start of the week, and Corn Belt terminals rose to as high as $610/st vs. the prior week’s $550-$590, with additional increases likely. Cuts in European ammonia production due to natural gas prices and supply fueled increases in the Tampa ammonia market, as well as higher fall prepay postings in the Midwest. Summer fill prices for urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and ammonium sulfate were still on the table at lower levels, however.

Phosphate prices were stable from the previous week, but potash fell amid a round of fill program offers at $760-$765/st in the Midwest and $845-$865 in the Western US.


US Beef Production Up 0.7% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

US federally inspected beef production rises to 542m pounds for the week ending July 30 from 539m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

  • Cattle slaughter up 0.6% from a week ago to 669m head
  • Pork production up 0.1% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 0.3%
  • For the year, beef production is 1.1% above last year’s level at this time, and pork is 3% below

U.S. June Agricultural Prices Paid and Received

Soyoil Consumption For Biofuels Lower Than Forecast

Use of soyoil as a feedstock for biofuel rose in May versus the previous month, according to the latest data from the EIA. 856M pounds of soyoil were used for biofuel and biodiesel in May, up from 839M pounds in April, the EIA reports. However, the May figure is lower than forecast, with Futures International projecting usage closer to 950M pounds. CBOT soyoil futures are up 3.9% in trading, providing support for soybean futures amid the inclusion of new clean energy tax credits and investments in new biofuel infrastructure in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 bill. Soybean futures are up 2.6%.


Russia Wheat-Export Tax to Fall to 4,627 Rubles a Ton Next Week

Russia’s wheat-export customs duty will fall to 4,627 rubles ($73) a ton next week from the current 4,952 rubles, Interfax reported, citing the Ministry of Agriculture.

NOTE: Russia started calculating the export tax in rubles at the beginning of this month; previously, it was calculated in US dollars, and the amount was significantly higher


LIVESTOCK: USDA Cattle and Hog Slaughter Estimates

The following is for week ending Saturday, July 30:

  • Cattle slaughter estimate at 669k, up 3.6% from a year ago
  • Hog slaughter at 2.291m, down 1% y/y

China approves trading of soybean, soyoil options on Dalian exchange

China’s securities regulator has approved trading of soybean and soyoil options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, it said on Friday.

Options trading for the Dalian exchange’s soybean contracts and its soyoil contract will begin on Aug. 8, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said in a statement.

This adds to the exchange’s existing agriculture products options such as soybean meal, corn and palm olein. The Dalian exchange also has options for other contracts such as iron ore and liquefied petroleum gas.

China is the world’s top importer of soybeans and largest consumer of various raw materials.

The country has been gradually increasing its number and variety of commodities derivatives, including opening some to overseas participants, amid efforts to increase its pricing power.

China also has on Shanghai Futures Exchange options for crude oil, copper and aluminium, while its Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange offers cotton, rapeseed meal and thermal coal options.

This commentary is provided by ADM Investor Services, a futures brokerage firm and wholly owned subsidiary of ADM Company. ADMIS has provided expert market analysis and price risk management strategies to commercial, institutional and individual traders for more than 50 years. Please visit us at or contact us at to learn more.


Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.


ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates