TFM Morning Update 08-01-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning for the third consecutive day. Yesterday, December corn closed below $4.00 which was a critical technical point. The next few days are expected to be hot and dry, but trade is not worried about that impacting yields.
According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report, ethanol stocks rose by 1.1% to 29.973m bbl where analysts were expecting 23.764. Plant production was at 1.109m b/d which compared to a survey average of 1.086m.
Estimates for today’s export sales report have corn exports in a range between 750k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 1,041k tons. This would compare to 1,077k tons a week ago.

Soybeans have begun the day trading lower again as weather remains mostly favorable and doesn’t give funds any reason to buy back their short positions in a meaningful way. Since Monday, they are estimated to have sold an additional 20,000 contracts. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower.
First notice day for August soybeans was yesterday and there were 41 deliveries reported this morning which now makes a total of 85. For soybean oil, there were 15 deliveries this morning which makes a total of 951 contracts delivered against the August contract.
Estimates for today’s export sales report have soybeans in a range between 400k and 1,200k tons with an average guess of 784k tons. This would compare to last week’s 918k tons.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with the September Chicago contract about 15 cents off its contract lows. There is some concern that spring wheat in the western US have been impacted by the hot and dry weather pattern.
The wheat market continues to battle between talk of a smaller French wheat crop with quality issues, lower Russian supplies and rising export prices, and concerns regarding a slowing world economy with lower demand.
Estimates for today’s export sales report have wheat sales in a range between 275k and 600k tons with an average guess of 409k. This would compare to last week’s 309k.

Amanda Brill