TFM Morning Update 08-03-2023


  • Corn is trading unchanged to lower on a lack of fresh news and with traders focusing on the forecast which is wet and cool over the next two weeks.
  • Yesterday’s ethanol production report was a highlight with production being the best on this date compared to the past five years. Stocks fell on good demand.
  • The average estimate for today’s export sales in corn is 658k tons, but may be less as export demand has been very sluggish.
  • Yesterday evening, StoneX revised their estimates for US corn yields higher to 177 bpa, a lofty estimate, but below the USDA’s last estimate of 177.5 bpa.


  • Soybeans are higher this morning after yesterday’s sharp selloff in anticipation of the export sales report which will reflect a solid number of flash sales to China and unknown destinations that occurred recently.
  • Soybean meal is trading higher this morning while soybean oil is lower on pressure from crude oil and world veg oil prices.
  • The average trade guess for today’s export sales report is 2,115k tons which would be one of the strongest weeks the US has seen in awhile.
  • While StoneX increased their estimate for the corn yield, they surprisingly lowered their estimate for the soybean yield to 50.5 bpa despite the friendly August forecast.


  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and Minn slightly higher and KC wheat lower despite more attacks on Ukraine’s port cities.
  • Today’s export sales report is expected to show another slow week for wheat with the average trade guess at 300k tons as Russia dominates global sales.
  • Vladimir Putin seems to be floating the idea of reinstating the Black Sea grain deal but only if their requirements are met, but last time they renewed the deal they still made it difficult for Ukraine to get ships moving.
  • India is seeking to import 9 mmt of wheat from Russia in an attempt to boost their domestic stockpiles and fight rising prices in the country.


Amanda Brill

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