TFM Morning Update 08-04-2022

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


Grains are mixed. SU is down 1 cent and near 14.02. SMU is near 434.7. BOU is near 61.27. CU is down 3 cents and near 5.88. WU is unch and near 7.64. KWU is unch and near 8.36. MWU is up 4 cents and near 8.79. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is mixed near $91. Gold and silver are higher. Copper is lower.

On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 5,000 Chicago wheat, even corn, sold 7,000 soybeans, 2,000 soyoil and 4,000 soymeal. We now estimate Managed funds to be net short 39,000 wheat, long 115,000 corn, 76,000 soybeans, 74,000 soymeal and 7,000 soyoil.

N US Plains and WCB will remain dry this week with temps above normal. C and ECB will see a good mix of rain and sunshine this week. 8-15 day maps are in disagreement with some leaning toward Midwest warm and dry. EU is warm and dry.

China is now having military drills around Taiwan with live missile launches. Some fear a blockade of ships going in and out of Taiwan. US stocks are higher. S&P has seen a good rally from 3,629 to 4.170. At the same time Crude has dropped from 118 to 90. Copper is lower due to concern about China relations and their economy. Gold is higher and has seen a rally from 1,678 to 1,775 on unstable World geo political issues.

Corn futures continue to reject 6.00 Sep. There remains concern about demand. Weekly US old crop corn export sales are est at 0-300 mt, new crop 100-400 mt. More privates estimate of US corn crop as of August 1 this week. Informa Friday. It will be hot and dry over the Midwest today. One group estimated US 2022 corn yield at 173.5 vs USDA 177. This is a crop size of 14,140 vs USDA 14,505. They are lower in KS, IA, SD, MO than StoneX. Their total US and EU projected corn crop loss id 985 mil bu or 25 mmt. US domestic corn basis remains firm. W KS is quoted near +200 Sep. Some suggest end users add coverage below 5.80 CZ.

Soybeans are holding near 14.00 Sep. There is talk of new Argentina program to boost farm sales. Brazil soybean premiums are higher as China is quickly cleaning up old crop Brazil supplies. China buying US is a big unknown but US gulf in +140 vs Brazil +250. Potential for higher US soybean demand should offer support to prices before US harvest. China Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Canada canola futures are near season lows. Weekly US old crop soybean sales are est at -100/200 mt new crop 200-700.

WU and KWU are unchanged while MWU is higher. There remains concern about global demand for wheat. Talk of higher Russia crop and exports offers resistance. EU wheat exports are up but drop in EU corn crop could increase demand for feed wheat. Talk of increase Ukraine grain exports offers resistance but quality of first corn cargo to Lebanon is in question. So is the other 20 cargoes that were loaded in April waiting to ship. Russia continues to escalate the Ukraine war especially now in the south where Ukraine export ports are. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 200-500 mt.


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