TFM Morning Update 08-05-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower again this morning as weather remains wetter, and December corn is currently sitting at the 50-day moving average which may be support. September corn is down 6 cents to $4.36-1/4 while December is down 6-1/2 cents to $4.59.
StoneX has adjusted its estimate for the 2026 corn yield and production to a yield of 184.8 bpa with production at 16.160 billion bushels. This compares to the USDA’s last estimate of 183.0 bpa.
Estimates for the weekly ethanol report from the EIA see ethanol production lower than the previous week at 1.106 million barrels per day while stockpiles are also seen lower at 24.51m bbl.

Soybean futures are lower again due to beneficial weather and fund selling. September soybeans are down 9-3/4 cents to $11.49 and November soybeans are down 10 cents to $11.67-3/4. September soybean meal is down $2.90 to $309.80 and soybean oil is down 0.17 cents to 68.03 cents.
The USDA reported a sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 26/27 marketing year, and this follows a sale to China every day so far this week. China finally looks on track to meet its commitment of buying 25 mmt of US soybeans.
StoneX has also projected its guess of soybean yield and production for 2026. It sees yield at 53.0 bpa which is in line with the USDA and sees production at 4.470 billion bushels. The USDA will update these numbers on August 12.

Wheat is mixed to start the day with September Chicago wheat up 1-3/4 cents to $6.40-1/4, KC up 2-2/4 cents to $7.09-1/4, and Minn down 2-1/2 cents to $6.82. The conflict with Russia and Ukraine has kept prices firm.
Russian wheat prices fell by between 8 and 14.5% since July do to export disruptions from the war with Ukraine. Ukraine is now turning to alternate grain export routes as Russia continues to block ports in the Black Sea.
The Crop Progress report saw spring wheat ratings improve by 2 points good to excellent to 55% while the harvest is now at 5% complete. The winter wheat harvest is 86% complete which compared to 81% last week. 98% of the spring wheat crop is headed.

Amanda Brill