TFM Morning Update 08-07-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after December futures plunged down to $3.96-3/4 yesterday before recovering. This could indicate a temporary bottom.
US ethanol production averaged 1.081 million bpd which was just slightly below the average trade guess of 1.082m, and was below last week’s 1.096m. Ethanol stocks fell by 3.9% to 23.756m bbl and analysts were expecting 24.646m.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,400k and 2,400k tons with an average guess of 1,850k. This would compare to 2,233k last week and 735k a year ago.

Soybeans are trading higher along with the rest of the grain complex as oversold conditions may be triggering funds to take profit on short positions. Soybean meal is trading higher whole soybean oil is lower once again.
Estimates for next week’s WASDE report estimate the soybean yield at 53.0 bpa with production at 4.37 billion bushels, but the yield number could come in higher. Ending stocks are estimated at 358 mb.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 350k and 1,200k tons with an average guess of 675k. This would compare to 779k last week and 1,311k a year ago.

All three wheat classes are trading significantly higher to start the day after over a week of falling prices. Yesterday, September wheat bottomed at $5.04 and is now trading at $5.15-1/4.
Estimates for wheat ending stocks in next week’s USDA report are now at 882 mb which would be down slightly from last month’s 890 mb. World ending stocks are expected to fall slightly.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 350k and 700k tons with an average guess of 542k. This would compare to 630k last week and 386k a year ago.

Amanda Brill