TFM Morning Update 08-08-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower again this morning after recent rains added pressure and the Crop Progress report showed an improvement in crop ratings.
Crop progress showed corn good to excellent rating improving by 2 points to 57%, above the average trade guess. 47% of corn is doughing and 93% is silking.
Corn inspections yesterday totaled 14.8 mb which brought total inspections for 22/23 to 1.3486 bb, down 33% from the previous year.
Brazil’s winter corn harvest is now 64% complete as of August 3 compared with 55% complete a week earlier but 80% last year. The winter corn production estimate was raised to 105.6 mmt.

Soybeans are lower again this morning with both soy products lower as rains help the crop during pod fill. November soybeans broke below the 100-day moving average.
DTN’s Digital Yield Tour has pegged the US soybean yield at 51 bpa which may not be so far off with all the rain expected during August.
Yesterday’s crop progress saw soybean good to excellent rating increase beyond the average trade guess with an improvement of 2 points to 54%. Illinois improved by 12 points to 58%.
Yesterday there was another flash sale of soybeans to China of 4.85 mb for 23/24, which follows a recent string of sales and points to an improvement in demand despite Brazil.

Wheat is trading lower this morning after yesterday’s small rally as the war in Ukraine escalated. French wheat was down 1% this morning and the US often watches that market at the beginning of the day.
Russia sent more missiles to eastern Ukraine overnight but traders are accustomed to this news so far, but now that they backed out of the grain deal, Russia is having more difficulty shipping grain as their insurance costs increase.
Yesterday’s crop progress showed spring wheat decline by 1 point to 41% good to excellent while the harvest is at 11%. The winter wheat harvest is 87% complete vs 80% last week.
Russian wheat exports for 23/24 are estimated at 48.1 mmt by SovEcon which is up from 47.2 mmt, but shipping issues may put a dent in that number.

Amanda Brill