TFM Morning Update 08-09-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as prices found support yesterday at the 4.90 area in December futures and some short covering kicked in.
Corn has not wanted to drop much further in price despite the frequent rains lately and improving yield estimates which is a good sign.
This morning’s radar is showing rain in Kansas and western Iowa and fronts that are expected to move into Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee later in the day.
DTN’s Digital Yield Tour continued yesterday and pegged corn yields for Illinois at 197 bpa, a massive jump from the previous guess of 140 bpa in June thanks to the rain. Indiana is expected at 191 bpa.

Soybeans have also rebounded after touching support at the 100-day moving average. Nov has moved over 25 cents higher after meeting support yesterday morning. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
Day two of the DTN yield tour showed estimates of 60.2 bpa for Illinois, 58.8 for Indiana, and 58.7 for Ohio. If the yield estimate for Illinois holds, it would be a new record high, a further testament to the significance of August rains.
The average trade guess for Friday’s USDA report is a soybean yield of 51.2 bpa which is very close to DTN’s guess of 51.0.
November soybean prices in China are holding the highest levels of the year with the last trade at the equivalent of $17.85 a bushel. This has helped export demand from the US.

Wheat is trading lower this morning but like corn and soybeans, has found some support above the lows in early May. Winter wheat harvest is making rallies difficult.
Friday’s USDA report will give updates of US wheat production, but big changes aren’t expected. The WASDE report will update production estimates.
Ukraine has said that if Russia continues to target Ukrainian ports and export routes they would begin picking targets that would “prevent their waters from being blocked”.
Ukraine’s 23/24 grain exports have totaled 2.76 mmt so far in the June/July season, but exports have been affected since Russia stepped up their attacks on export routes.

Amanda Brill