TFM Morning Update 08-09-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning, front month corn is currently down about a nickel on the week, barring a push sharply higher today this will be the sixth week in the last eight corn has closed lower.
Mexico was once again named the largest buyer of old-crop corn. 51.3 million bushels of corn total were shipped last week, this is 15.3 million bushels more than needed each week to reach the USDA’s export estimate for the marketing year that ends in August.
In Monday’s WASDE report, traders will be looking for changes in acreage and in yield. The general thought is that acres will be lowered due to the flooding in the northwest Corn Belt, but yield is expected to come in at a record high 182.1 bpa, this would be up 1.1 bpa from last month. Due to faster acreage reporting compared to past years, this will be the first August WASDE the USDA will incorporate FSA data into their acreage estimate.

Soybeans are trading a few cents higher this morning after trading to new contract lows on Thursday. With lack of any extreme heat and adequate moisture in most areas soybean futures have not felt the need to add weather premium back into the market. Weather appears mostly non-threatening into late August.
In Argentina a strike by workers at oilseed refineries has slowed production. Should the strike extend past its current three days, additional temporary demand for U.S. soybean meal and oil could develop.
China was named the top buyer of old and new crop soybeans last week in yesterday’s export sales report. 12.9 million bushels of soybeans were shipped last week, 2.7 million bushels less than the weekly amount needed to reach the USDA’s estimate for the marketing year that ends August 31.
Monday’s WASDE report is expected to show an increase in the soybean yield to 52.5 bpa with production estimates up 34 mb from July to 4.469 bb. The average carryout estimate for 24/25 is 472 mb which is up 22 mb from July, if realized this will be the highest carryout estimate in five years.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning, if futures can hold onto Friday’s gains this will be the second consecutive week of higher closes and look promising of a short-term bottom being in place.
Estimates for wheat in Monday’s WASDE report have all wheat production increasing from last month to 2,017, and all winter wheat increasing to 1,346 from last month.
Wheat ending stocks for 24/25 are estimated at 859 mb which would be up slightly from last month’s 856 mb. World wheat ending stocks are expected to be mostly unchanged at 257.0 mmt.
Export sales Thursday morning were reported at the low end of trade expectations totaling 10.1 million bushels. Total sales however remain 34% ahead of last year’s pace.

Keegan Madigan