TFM Morning Update 08-10-2022

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


US CPI Wednesday. Grains are higher. SU is up 16 cents and near 15.28. SQ is near 17.03. SMU is near 453.5. BOU is near 65.67. CU is up 3 cents and near 6.19. WU is up 9 cents and near 7.90. KWU is up 10 cents and near 8.62. MWU is up 7 cents and near 9.00. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold and silver are lower. Copper is higher.

On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 1,000 Chicago wheat, 13,000 soybeans, 3,000 soymeal, even soyoil and bought 8,000 corn. We now estimate Managed funds to be net short 21,000 wheat, long 147,000 corn, 103,000 soybeans, 74,000 soymeal and 24,000 soyoil.

Corn futures are higher on continued talk of lower EU crop and higher imports. There is also talk of USDA lowering US 2002 corn yield on Friday. Warm and dry conditions will continues across US SW for another 15 days. US ECB weather forecast remains normal. Brazil corn futures are at 7 week high. Matif corn keeps trading higher and is now over wheat prices. Also on Friday USDA could increase Ukraine corn exports. EU has doubled its Ukraine corn imports vs ly. 6.37 CU is still key resistance.

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Nearby soybean futures are higher. Strong US cash crush margins and declining soybean supplies may be supporting soybean futures. There is also talk US crushers have increased soymeal basis. Some feel USDA could slightly drop US soybean yield on Friday but could offset that with lower exports. August is key month for US soybean crop. US soybean crop rating is now below last year. Crop ratings are lower in NE, TN, OH, and KY. Highest IL, IA and WI. China July pork prices up 26 pct from June despite Q2 production 14 mmt and highest since 2015. SU now over all moving average with next resistance 16.00.

Wheat futures are higher. World importer demand is higher. Matif wheat futures are higher. Still some debate over EU exports, which are up 30 pct vs ly vs higher domestic prices. USDA has a big question concerning World wheat trade matrix to answer on Friday. Some could see higher Russia, Ukraine and Australia exports vs lower India and Argentina. Trade will need to watch Russia and US SW weather. WU still trading near 20 day moving average but a long way away from next resistance near 9.00. | 312.242.7000 | Chicago | New York | London | Hong Kong | Singapore | Taipei | Shanghai

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