TFM Morning Update 08-11-2022

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


Wheat prices overnight are up 9 1/2 in SRW, up 7 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans up 10 3/4; Soymeal up $0.46; Soyoil up 0.36.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 28 3/4 in SRW, up 24 3/4 in HRW, up 23 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 9 3/4; Soybeans up 24 1/4; Soymeal up $0.62; Soyoil up 1.98.

For the month to date wheat prices are unchanged in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, up 4 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans down 30; Soymeal down $6.10; Soyoil up 0.69.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 5% in SRW, up 9% in HRW, down -7% in HRS; Corn is up 5%; Soybeans up 27%; Soymeal up 25%; Soyoil up 25%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans up 46 yuan; Soymeal up 17; Soyoil up 28; Palm oil up 94; Corn down 14 –Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 139 ringgit (+3.38%) at 4250.

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There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,653 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 149 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 10 were: SRW Wheat down 621 contracts, HRW Wheat up 379, Corn down 3,370, Soybeans up 3,273, Soymeal up 1,632, Soyoil up 222.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday. Outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Tuesday-Friday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Isolated showers north Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Friday.

The player sheet for Aug. 10 had funds: net buyers of 7,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 3,500 corn, buyers of 500 soybeans, buyers of 500 soymeal, and  buyers of 2,000 soyoil.


  • SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 196,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year that begins on Sept. 1.
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought 82,955 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders that closed on Wednesday.
  • WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER PASSED: Importers in the Philippines are believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in a tender for up to 120,000 tonnes of wheat and 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday
  • BARLEY TENDER PASSED: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.
  • FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Nov. 30 and arrive in Japan by Jan. 26 via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Aug. 19.


  • WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency Government Trading Corporation (GTC) issued an international tender to purchase about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat


  • Basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast rose on Wednesday on tightening old-crop supplies and competition for bushels from domestic soy processors, traders said.
    • CIF bids and offers for soybeans and corn remained inverted, with prompt barges trading at hefty premiums to deferred shipment slots when the fall harvest should replenish bins.
    • CIF soybean barges loaded in September traded at 170 cents over November, up 10 cents from Tuesday’s trades, and were re-bid at 160 cents over futures, up a dime from Tuesday’s bid.
    • Bids for August soy barges were hard to pin down. Barges loaded during first-half August traded at 355 cents over November, one trader said, while full-month August barges traded at 290 cents over futures.
    • FOB export premiums for September soybean loadings held steady at around 290 cents over November, while offers firmed for October, November, December and January loadings.
    • For corn, CIF barges loaded in August were bid at around 115 cents over September corn, down 1 cent from Tuesday. September barges were bid at 110 cents over futures.
    • FOB corn export premiums for September loadings at the Gulf held at around 140 cents over September.
  • Spot basis bids for corn fell at processors and river terminals in the western half of the U.S. Midwest on Wednesday, grain dealers said.
    • Processor bids for soybeans were strong west of the Mississippi River, rising by 40 cents a bushel in Des Moines, Iowa.
    • The corn basis was steady to firm at western elevators, rising by 3 cents a bushel in Council Bluffs, Iowa.
    • Soy bids were weak at river terminals in the West and unchanged at elevators in the area.
    • Bids for both commodities were steady at processors, elevators and river terminals in the eastern half of the region.
  • Spot basis offers for U.S. soymeal were mixed at truck market processors in the Midwest on Wednesday, dealers said.
    • The rail market was steady to firm with offers rising by $10 per ton in Decatur, Alabama.
    • Supplies were variable, with some maintenance shutdowns leading to limited availability on the cash market in certain areas.
    • But soymeal was abundant in areas where the crush pace has remained strong, and recent gains in the futures market have cut into demand, dealers said.
    • Along rivers, bids for supplies shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf weakened.
  • Spot basis bids for corn were steady to down slightly at elevators, processors and river terminals around the U.S. Midwest on Wednesday morning, grain dealers said.
    • Cash bids for corn were flat at the region’s ethanol plants.
    • Soybean bids were steady to down sharply at elevators, falling by 22 cents a bushel in Cincinnati, Ohio.
    • Processor bids for soybeans were unchanged while river bids were steady to weak, falling by 10 cents a bushel near Davenport, Iowa.
    • Farmers booked some small soybean sales earlier this week when cash prices rebounded to $14 a bushel, a dealer said.
    • Concerns about dry weather crimping harvest yields kept a lid on new-crop sales, dealers said.
  • U.S. cash millfeed values held steady on Wednesday, underpinned in the Plains and western Midwest by dry conditions that have bolstered demand for supplemental livestock feed, brokers said.
    • Adequate supplies and thin demand from feed mixers in the Northeast anchored millfeed bids and offers in Buffalo, New York, truck market.

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.6% to 23.256M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

  • Analysts were expecting 23.512 mln bbl

Plant production at 1.022m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.035m

India to Soon Achieve 20% Ethanol Blending in Gasoline: Puri

India’s ethanol blending with gasoline increased to 10.2% from 1.4% in 2014, according to the nation’s oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri.

  • India saved 415 billion rupees ($5.2 billion) through ethanol blending, provided 406 billion rupees to farmers and helped CO2 reduction of 2.7 million tons, the minister said at the inauguration of an ethanol plant at Panipat in northern India
  • At Panipat, India’s first 2G ethanol plant built at an investment of 9 billion rupees will use crop residue as feedstock
  • Panipat plant will produce 100k liters/day of ethanol and cut CO2 by 300k tons/yr
  • Four new 2G ethanol plants to be built across Punjab, Odisha, Assam and Karnataka
  • Panipat 2G ethanol plant will use crop stubbles, helping reduction in air pollution in Delhi and adjoining areas, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a virtual speech, while inaugurating the plant
  • India currently produces 4 billion liters/year of ethanol for blending with gasoline, the prime minister said
  • India has provided about 310 million cooking LPG connections, reaching almost 100% coverage, Modi said
  • Govt plans to extend piped natural gas connections to 75% homes in next few years

Brazil Ethanol Sales Slump as Tax Changes Curb Biofuel Appeal

Ethanol sales by sugar-cane millers in Center-South declined 6.6% to 2.48b liters in July, when changes over fuel taxes were implemented to reduce prices to consumers, figures from industry group Unica show.

  • Hydrous ethanol sales in domestic market fell 7.6% y/y to 1.4b liters last month, while anhydrous ethanol declined 3.2% to 937m liters
  • Anhydrous production reached a record in the second half of July at 1b liters, up 2.5% y/y
  • Tax changes reduced hydrous ethanol competitiveness against gasoline, with the price parity falling below 70%, Martinho Ono, president of ethanol trading at SCA, says by phone
  • NOTE: Sugar output soared 8.4% in the second half July to 3.3m tons, in line with a Bloomberg survey
  • Crushing in the period was favored by dry weather and higher cane yields, Unica says in report on website
  • Sugar content in cane rose 0.6% y/y to 148.26 kg/ton in 2nd half of July
    • Since the season’s start, sugar content fell 2.4% to 133.56 kg/ton
  • NOTE: Most cars in Brazil can run solely on hydrous ethanol or on a blend of anhydrous ethanol and gasoline; drivers usually choose only ethanol when it’s 70% or less of the price of gasoline

Indonesia’s June Palm Oil Stockpiles Fall 7.6% M/m: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil stockpiles fell to 6.68 million tons in June from 7.23 million tons in May, the palm oil association Gapki says in an emailed statement.

  • June exports +244% m/m to 2.33m tons after the government lifted a ban on exports in late May
    • Shipments to the biggest buyer China almost doubled from May to June, while cargoes to India jumped about 37%
    • China imported 416,200 tons of palm oil in June, India 211,300 tons
    • Exports to Pakistan, the EU and African countries also rose in June
  • Total palm oil production in June +6% m/m to 3.62m tons
    • CPO output up to 3.3m tons in June from 3.1m tons in May
    • Production rose as more fresh fruit bunches were harvested
  • Domestic consumption up to 1.84m tons in June from 1.61m tons in May
    • Palm oil used in biodiesel +22% m/m to 720,000 tons in June
    • Food sector use of palm +11.6% m/m to 934,000 tons in June

Ukraine Crop Ship Rejected by Lebanon Set to Dock at Turkey Port

The vessel Razoni — which is loaded with corn from Ukraine — is set to berth Thursday at the port of Mersin in Turkey, according to a lineup on the port’s website.

  • Port officials didn’t immediately reply to phone and emailed requests for comment
  • NOTE: Ukraine’s embassy in Lebanon said Monday the ship had been refused by its final buyer there

Shipowners Very Interested in Ukraine Grain Corridor: Centre

The Joint Co-ordination Centre overseeing Ukraine’s grain shipment corridors is getting “tremendous interest” from shipowners to transit grain through the corridors, Frederick Kenney, interim coordinator for the UN at the centre, said from Istanbul at a virtual briefing.

  • Shipowners were waiting for operating procedures to be released and now that they are published, “we’re expecting to see a big uptick in applications for transit,” Kenney said
  • There are a number of empty grain vessels in Turkey waiting to arrange the contracts; once they have deals they’ll transit northbound: Kenney
  • “We receive dozens and dozens of phonecalls and emails every day asking when we can get ready to go”
  • NOTE: So far JCC authorized 12 vessels to depart Ukrainian ports carrying 370,000 tons of grain and other food stuffs

Argentine 2022/23 corn harvest seen at 55 mln tonnes -Rosario Grains Exchange

Argentina’s corn harvest for the 2022/23 season is expected to be around 55 million tonnes, the Rosario Grains Exchange said on Wednesday.

Additionally, the exchange forecast soy production of 47 million tonnes for the 2022/23 season.

Argentina is a major world supplier of wheat and the second largest exporter of corn.

The exchange said it expects the country’s corn planting area to fall by 4.7% to 8 million hectares.

Meanwhile, the exchange expects producers to increase the country’s soybean planting area by 700,000 hectares to 16.8 million hectares, a 4.3% increase in comparison to 2021.

The exchanged cited producers’ preference for soybean production given the “not very encouraging weather forecasts and high possibilities” of the la niña phenomenon in a year of “high uncertainty.”

The Rosario exchange maintained its forecast for the 2022/23 wheat harvest, whose planting is about to end, at 17.7 million tonnes.

Romania’s 2022 wheat harvest up to 18% lower y/y – minister

Romania’s 2022 wheat harvest is 15%-18% lower year-on-year and the country will export only quantities that come above typical domestic consumption, agriculture minister Petre Daea said on Wednesday.

“Under no circumstances will all the wheat go to export, but only quantities that exceed the needs of the country. I can’t leave Romania without its wheat and then have to import from other countries,” Daea said during a press briefing following a weekly government meeting.

Daea also said that despite the lower output, this year’s wheat harvest will ensure Romania’s domestic consumption and export, without elaborating on the volume of wheat harvested this year.

In 2021, Romania’s wheat production rose to 10.32 million tonnes, compared to 6.4 million tonnes in 2020, according to provisional data from the national statistics office.

Jordan Wheat Reserves Total 1.3m Tons; Barley Stocks at 1m Tons

Jordan’s monthly consumption of wheat is 80,000 tons, Yanal Barmawi, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Industry and Trade, says by phone.

The country consumes about 60,000 tons of barley a month

Egypt has strategic wheat reserves sufficient for 7.2 months – supply minister

Egypt has strategic wheat reserves sufficient for 7.2 months, a statement by the Egyptian cabinet said on Wednesday, citing supply minister Ali Moselhi.

During a meeting of the committee managing the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, Moselhi added that the country’s reserves of vegoils, sugar and rice were sufficient for 5.3 months, 6.6 months, and 3.2 months, respectively.

Food Prices Rise Most Since 1979, Keeping US Cost of Living High

  • Cereal, soups among categories with record annual increases
  • Surge in food prices offsets relief from lower energy costs

Food prices in the US soared in July, keeping the cost of living painfully high even as lower gasoline costs offered some relief to consumers.

Overall food prices climbed 10.9% from a year earlier, the biggest increase since 1979, according to data published by the Labor Department on Wednesday. Several essentials like cereal and certain dairy products posted record year-over-year rises.

While the headline rate of inflation declined from the previous month, largely due to a drop in energy prices, the surging cost of food — as well as rising rents — continues to pinch consumers, especially low-income Americans who spend a bigger chunk of their household budgets on groceries.

Food prices have risen globally since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reduced grain shipments from one of the world’s top suppliers. While some exports have resumed, the pace remains well below normal.

On a month-over-month basis, food prices rose 1.14%, the most since April 2020. The cost of food away from home, like restaurant meals, also continued to advance, though at a slower pace than groceries.

US agricultural giants have benefited from high commodity prices caused by supply-chain disruptions. Cargill Inc. on Wednesday reported a record revenue of $165 billion in fiscal 2022, following strong results from other big firms in the industry such as Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and Bunge Ltd.

Easing Fertilizer Prices Too Little, Too Late for Farmers

Fertilizer prices have eased from the stratospheric heights reached earlier this year, but they’re still beyond the reach of many farmers in North America, sapping sentiment among growers and stoking concerns over food supplies. The price of urea, the most commonly used nitrogen fertilizer, has fallen by about a third since its record high in the second quarter, but remains about 80% above its five-year average at New Orleans, according to Alexis Maxwell, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst. Supply snags, the war in Ukraine and surging costs for natural gas used to make crop nutrients have combined to keep prices elevated, and a winter gas squeeze could send fertilizer prices surging anew, she said.

Brazil’s Slow Demand Burdens Urea Prices, Signals Possible Peak

Natural gas supply constraints continue to pressure nitrogen markets globally, pushing urea prices up in Brazil, though slow domestic demand suggests the market may have peaked and is facing another drop. Potash and phosphates continue to decline since suppliers are eager to release inventories.

Market Uncertainty Hits Brazil Urea Prices

Urea prices in Brazil increased slightly by $5 a metric ton (mt) this week, firming to $660-$680. The smaller increase follows a 16% rise last week due to ammonia supply constraints pressuring the global market. Yet Brazil’s seasonally slow demand hints that additional urea price hikes probably aren’t sustainable, with reports of new bids falling to $630-$640/mt. With India also out of the market, nitrogen demand might be delayed until 4Q as preparations for the winter season gain momentum in Brazil. Potash and phosphate prices are weak, both trading in the low-$900/mt range, as inventories remain high and the September-October summer planting season approaches.

Potash Prices Slip as Inventory Builds; Ammonia Seeks Direction

Potash prices again fell below Nutrien and Mosaic’s 3Q US fill offers last week. Brazilian potash imports are tracking 33% above last year’s level amid reports of full warehouses and muted farmer demand. Nearly 40% of Europe’s ammonia capacity has gone offline due to high natural gas prices, yet new global supply should counter the loss.

Fall Ammonia Leads Pack in Wednesday Whisper

Ammonia prices were firm-to-higher in the US heartland as retailers prepared for fall application. New Orleans urea prices took a breather after a significant run-up, while inland urea was still trying to catch up. Urea ammonium nitrate was moving up after CF completed its fill program. Inland ammonium sulfate, ammonium nitrate and potash continued to soften. Brazil phosphate and potash were pressured by oversupply.




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 Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.



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