TFM Morning Update 08-11-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning but is mostly quiet ahead of the USDA report today.
The USDA has surveyed over 15,000 producers for today’s report, and estimates are that production will be over 15.0 bb and that new crop ending stocks will be over 2.0 bb.
DTN’s yield tour was on day 4 yesterday and they estimated corn yields in Kansas at 150.7 bpa and 150.1 bpa in Missouri.
Brazil’s corn production was raised again for 22/23 from 127.8 mmt to 130 mmt, but analysts in a Bloomberg survey were estimating 135.5 mmt.

Soybeans are slightly higher this morning along with soybean meal and oil ahead of the WASDE report which is anyone’s guess to whether it will be friendly or not.
Estimates are expecting a smaller crop of 4.238 bb which would be based on a lower yield of 51.2 bpa with new crop ending stocks expected to be lowered from 300 mb to 261 mb.
Yesterday’s yield tour by DTN saw soybean yields in Kansas at 39.0 bpa and 48.4 bpa in Missouri, but both crops have chances to improve from further rains.
Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed that old crop soybeans only need 46 mb more shipped by the end of August to meet the USDA’s goal of 1.980 bb, but sales have slowed down in a big way.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC slightly lower but Minn slightly higher as markets trade quietly ahead of the WASDE report.
In today’s report, the USDA will most likely adjust wheat export estimates as Russia stays in control of wheat exports and other countries have trouble exporting.
This morning the US halted an import of Polish wheat at Houston after authorities cited issues with contamination, but the move could spark tensions with the EU.
Ukraine has harvested nearly 23 mmt of grain so far which includes 17.7 mmt of wheat and 4.9 mmt of barley, but shipping will be a problem.

Amanda Brill