TFM Morning Update 08-11-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher to start the day as futures continue to recover from last week’s low. The 15-day forecast shows little rain and the yield tour this week may show early season dryness in the Western Corn Belt.
Estimates for next tomorrow’s WASDE report see corn yields coming in at 184.3 bpa which is above trendline yield, but the USDA could call yields higher. 25/26 ending stocks are estimated at 1.92 bb and world ending stocks are expected to rise from last month.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn by 7,435 contracts which left them with a net short position of 173,750 contracts.

Soybeans are trading sharply higher after President Trump urged China to quadruple the number of soybeans they might buy from the US ahead of the tariff truce deadline, but analysts say this is highly unlikely. Both soybean meal and oil are higher as well.
Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report estimate the soybean yield at 53.0 bpa with production at 4.37 billion bushels, but the yield number could come in higher. Ending stocks are estimated at 358 mb.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 29,619 contracts increasing their net short position to 65,930 contracts. They sold 11,661 contracts of bean oil and sold 234 contracts of meal.

Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago and Minneapolis trading higher while KC wheat is slightly lower. The HRW wheat harvest is about 75% complete with South Dakota lagging due to rain.
Estimates for wheat ending stocks in tomorrow’s USDA report are now at 882 mb which would be down slightly from last month’s 890 mb. World ending stocks are expected to fall slightly.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 15,445 contracts of Chicago wheat which left them with a net short position of 80,769 contracts. They sold 9,783 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 57,063 contracts.

Amanda Brill