TFM Morning Update 08-12-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower to start the day as trade prepares for a potentially volatile and bearish USDA report. While a primary focus will be on the yield estimate, export demand will be important to watch as well.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report see corn yields coming in at 184.3 bpa which is above trendline yield, but the USDA could call yields higher. 25/26 ending stocks are estimated at 1.92 bb and world ending stocks are expected to rise from last month.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw corn conditions fall one point to 72% good to excellent which was expected. This compares to 67% a year ago. 94% of the crop is silking, 58% is in dough stage, and 14% is dented.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning but have backed off more significant lows in overnight trade. Yesterday, it was announced that no trade deal had been struck with China and the tariff truce would be extended again until November 9. Both soybean meal and oil are lower.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report estimate the soybean yield at 53.0 bpa with production at 4.37 billion bushels, but the yield number could come in higher. Ending stocks are estimated at 358 mb.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings fall one point to 68% good to excellent which is the same rating seen a year ago at this time. 91% of the crop is blooming and 71% is setting pods, both in line with last year’s progress.

All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day as a general bearish tone settles across the grains in anticipation for the USDA report today. Yesterday’s export inspections were sluggish for wheat yesterday which did not help.
Estimates for wheat ending stocks in today’s USDA report are now at 882 mb which would be down slightly from last month’s 890 mb. World ending stocks are expected to fall slightly.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw spring wheat conditions improve one point to 49% good to excellent which is still a far cry from last year’s 72% at this time. 16% of the crop has been harvested and 90% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested.

Amanda Brill