TFM Morning Update 08-12-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning as the market positions ahead of today’s USDA WASDE report. September corn is up 5 cents at $4.41-3/4, while December corn is 4-3/4 cents higher at $4.65-1/4.
Ahead of Wednesday’s WASDE report, a Reuters survey of analysts shows the market expects a U.S. corn yield of 182.4 bushels per acre, with estimates ranging from 180.5 to 184.8 bpa. Production is projected at 15.934 billion bushels, with harvested acreage expected to decline by 76,000 acres.
Looking at ending stocks, analysts expect 2025/26 corn stocks at 1.999 billion bushels, down 21 million bushels from last month. 2026/27 ending stocks are expected at 1.725 billion bushels, down 65 million bushels from the USDA’s July estimate.

Soybean futures have pressed higher this morning as market participants square positions ahead of today’s WASDE report. September soybeans are up 6 cents at $11.57-1/2, while November soybeans are 6-1/4 cents higher at $11.75.
Ahead of Wednesday’s Crop Production report, a Reuters survey of traders shows the market expects a U.S. soybean yield of 52.9 bushels per acre. Harvested acreage is projected at 84.564 million acres, up 163,000 acres from the June estimate, with total production expected at 4.472 billion bushels.
Looking at ending stocks, analysts expect 2025/26 soybean stocks at 321 million bushels, down 9 million bushels from last month. 2026/27 ending stocks are expected at 304 million bushels, down 6 million bushels from the USDA’s July estimate.

The wheat complex is trading higher across the board this morning. Looking at the September contracts, Chicago wheat is up 4-3/4 cents at $6.45-1/4, Kansas City wheat is 6-1/2 cents higher at $7.20, and Minneapolis spring wheat is up 2-1/2 cents at $6.72-1/2.
Russia and Ukraine have increasingly targeted ships, ports, and supply routes, heightening concerns over grain movement through the Black Sea. Russian wheat exports in August could fall to their lowest level in nearly a decade, as low prices and elevated security risks weigh on export activity. With Russia remaining the world’s largest wheat exporter, further disruptions could have significant implications for global wheat supplies.
U.S. spring wheat harvest reached 91% complete, right in line with the five-year average. HRS condition ratings fell 4 percentage points to 51% good to excellent, compared with 49% last year. The decline was expected following a sharp increase in spring wheat acres experiencing drought conditions over the past two weeks.

Matthew Lucas