TFM Morning Update 08-14-2023

CORN

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning following Friday’s WASDE report which showed a decline in expected demand.
  • The weather forecast has turned more bullish with the 7-day forecast showing very little rain in the Corn Belt and hotter temperatures.
  • In Brazil, corn on the Bovespa exchange fell by 1.5% as the second crop corn harvest has estimates pointing to a record output.
  • Brazilian farmers have now harvested 72.84% of their second crop corn compared to 83.41% at this time last year.

SOYBEANS

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with both soybean meal and oil. The drier forecast could impact soybean yields.
  • China’s soybean imports were up 15% between January and July with an estimated 62.3 mmt imported in that timeframe.
  • NOPA July US soybean crush is expected at 171.337 mb which would be up from June’s 9-month low.
  • In India, July vegetable oil imports rose to 1.77 mmt with palm imports rising the most from 683,133 tons to 1.09 mmt.

WHEAT

  • Wheat is trading lower this morning and is testing the lower end of the trading range. Friday’s USDA report shows winter wheat yields improving added pressure.
  • Russia’s wheat exports have been huge but are expected to get even bigger as the country dominates the global export market. They are expected to export 47 mmt in 23/24.
  • Ukraine’s grain harvest is exceeding expectations and could be 5% higher than in 2022 thanks to favorable weather.
  • Despite Russia pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal, Ukraine has begun registering ships for another Black Sea corridor to release cargo ships that have been trapped.

Author

Amanda Brill

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