TFM Morning Update 08-14-2023


  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning following Friday’s WASDE report which showed a decline in expected demand.
  • The weather forecast has turned more bullish with the 7-day forecast showing very little rain in the Corn Belt and hotter temperatures.
  • In Brazil, corn on the Bovespa exchange fell by 1.5% as the second crop corn harvest has estimates pointing to a record output.
  • Brazilian farmers have now harvested 72.84% of their second crop corn compared to 83.41% at this time last year.


  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with both soybean meal and oil. The drier forecast could impact soybean yields.
  • China’s soybean imports were up 15% between January and July with an estimated 62.3 mmt imported in that timeframe.
  • NOPA July US soybean crush is expected at 171.337 mb which would be up from June’s 9-month low.
  • In India, July vegetable oil imports rose to 1.77 mmt with palm imports rising the most from 683,133 tons to 1.09 mmt.


  • Wheat is trading lower this morning and is testing the lower end of the trading range. Friday’s USDA report shows winter wheat yields improving added pressure.
  • Russia’s wheat exports have been huge but are expected to get even bigger as the country dominates the global export market. They are expected to export 47 mmt in 23/24.
  • Ukraine’s grain harvest is exceeding expectations and could be 5% higher than in 2022 thanks to favorable weather.
  • Despite Russia pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal, Ukraine has begun registering ships for another Black Sea corridor to release cargo ships that have been trapped.


Amanda Brill

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