TFM Morning Update 08-14-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning in quiet trade. Despite Monday’s key reversal higher that followed a neutral WASDE report, prices have slipped as producers take the chance to sell any rallies available.
Yesterday, CONAB revised its estimates for Brazil’s corn crop lower at 115.6 mmt. This is down from 115.859 mmt last month and is well below the average trade guess of 117.1 mmt. This is also much lower than the USDA’s last estimate of 122.0 mmt.
In Argentina, South American farming company, Adecoagro, has said it will reduce its corn planting area during the 24/25 growing season in response to this year’s leafhopper bug plague. Argentina is set to begin planting corn in a few months.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning as they attempt to recover following 6 consecutive lower closes and a loss of over 34 cents on the week. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
Yesterday, there was another daily announcement that two cargoes of new crop soybeans were sold to China as the US’s export window opens. US soybeans are at a discount to Chinese prices, and Brazilian basis levels have been getting more expensive.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating in soybeans unchanged at 68%, but is 9% higher than the rating at this time last year. 91% of the crop is blooming which compares to 86% last week and the 5-year average of 90%, and 72% of the crop is setting pods.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning and are likely pulling corn down with them. With the winter wheat harvest complete, the harvest lows may have been put in by now as trade has remained above the lows.
In the EU, soft wheat exports have fallen by 22% year over year in the season to August 11th. Exports for the season totaled 3.1 million tons which compares with 4 million at this time last year. Primary destinations have been to Egypt, Nigeria, and Morocco.
Monday’s Crop Progress Report showed spring wheat crop ratings falling to 72% good to excellent from 74% last week. 18% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested which compares to 6% last week and the 5-year average of 21%. The winter wheat harvest is 93% complete which compares to 88% last week and the 5-year average of 91%.

Amanda Brill