TFM Morning Update 08-14-2025

CORN

Corn futures are lower to start the day erasing yesterday’s gains so far. While a decline in the Dollar index yesterday was supportive, traders are still faced with a huge crop and estimated carryout of over 2 billion bushels.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,150k and 2,800k tons with an average guess of 1,967k. This would compare to 3,334k last week and 921k tons a year ago at this time.
US ethanol stocks fell by 4.7% to 22.649m bbl which was well below the average analyst estimate of 23.722m. Plant production came in higher at 1.093m barrels per day.

Soybeans are trading lower to start the day following three days of very sharp gains that were fueled by a surprise reduction in acreage in Tuesday’s WASDE report. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is lower.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 450k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 950k tons. This would compare to 1,013k last week and 1,481k a year ago at this time.
In Brazil, soybean production is expected to rise by nearly 1 mmt to 170.5 mmt as a result of better than expected yields. The USDA has not yet increased production estimates for Brazil.

Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago and KC wheat trading lower along with the rest of the grains while Minneapolis wheat is slightly higher. Despite a relatively friendly USDA report, wheat has struggled near the $5 level with larger Russian and Ukrainian production weighing on prices along with US harvest.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 400k and 850k tons with an average guess of 600k tons. This would compare to 738k last week and 273k a year ago at this time.
In Germany, the 2025 grain output forecast has been raised for both wheat and corn. Total grains are estimated at 43 mmt up from 41.7 mmt last month with wheat at 22.4 mmt compared to 21.6 mmt a month ago. This is due to larger acreage and better yields than expected.

Amanda Brill