TFM Morning Update 08-15-2023


  • Corn is trading lower this morning after crop progress was released yesterday afternoon which showed the corn crop improving.
  • The good to excellent rating for corn rose by 2% to 59% and is now rated higher than last year’s crop at this time. 96% of the crop is silking and 65% is doughing.
  • The upcoming hot and dry forecast that is expected to last around 2 weeks may impact ear fill, especially in areas that have didn’t receive as much rain.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections for corn were slow at 15.6 mb but were slightly above the previous week. There was a cargo to China, but Mexico is still the number 1 importer of US corn.


  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning with front month September leading the way after an improvement in crop ratings. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.
  • Crop progress saw a 5% increase in the good to excellent rating for soybeans with 78% of the crop setting pods.
  • The 7-day forecast contains almost no rain for the Midwest and could impact yields, but things would be more concerning if not for the recent rains.
  • Soybean inspections totaled 10.9 mb for the week ending August 10, and total inspections are now down 8% from the previous year.


  • Wheat is lower again this morning after crop progress showed a slight improvement to spring wheat ratings.
  • Crop progress showed spring wheat good to excellent ratings increasing by 1% to 42%. Spring wheat is now 24% harvested vs 11% last week, and winter wheat is now 92% harvested vs 87% last week.
  • IKAR has raised their estimate for the Russian wheat crop once again to 89.5 mmt vs 88 mmt, and traders seem confident that those grains will actually get exported despite the war.
  • Despite Russia pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal, Ukraine has begun registering ships for another Black Sea corridor to release cargo ships that have been trapped.


Amanda Brill

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