TFM Morning Update 08-18-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning in response to the new 7-day forecast which is showing virtually no rain for the Corn Belt or Midwest and above normal temperatures.
December corn futures seem to have found support near the 4.80 level and are technically oversold. They may have found a temporary bottom.
While most of the Corn Belt received beneficial rains recently, soil moisture maps have shown that there are topsoil deficits in parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
Argentinian corn production is seen as maintained at 34 mmt, and 90% of the crop has been harvested.

Soybeans are higher this morning and are headed for a third consecutively higher close as weather forecasts stay hot and dry into pod fill. Both soybean meal and oil are higher.
Technically, November soybeans appear to have put a bottom in and are hugging the 50-day moving average which is moving higher. There is a gap on the chart at 13.79 which may be a target.
With this two weeks of hot and dry temperatures, the September WASDE report could show another reduction in yields, but that is also the report where acres could be adjusted higher which would effect the carryout.
India’s July oilmeal exports rose to 381,301 tons, but soybean meal exports fell to 52,210 tons from 73,139 in June.

Wheat is trading higher this morning after 5 consecutively lower closes in Chicago wheat as markets look for a bottom. There was no news of attacks in the Black Sea last night.
India is reportedly in confidential talks with Russia for a massive purchase of 9 mmt of wheat which would be the largest grain deal ever between the two countries. Indian wheat stocks are 20% below the 10-year average.
A drought in Kazakhstan has led to the destruction on 170 hectares of cropland with much of that being dedicated to wheat.
Ukraine’s August grain exports out of the Danube River are reported at 820,000 metric tons so far as the river becomes Ukraine’s main export route.

Amanda Brill