TFM Morning Update 08-18-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower to start the day with the December contract remaining in its downward channel. Friday’s rally brought it to the top of this channel, but no important technical resistance has been broken yet.
Analyst group ASAP Agri increased its estimate for the 2025 Ukrainian corn harvest to 30.9 mmt from its previous estimate of 27.6 mmt citing favorable weather and key rains in July.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn. They sold 2,364 contracts as of August 12 which left them with a net short position of 176,114 contracts.

Soybeans are trading lower following significant gains on Friday and gains of a whopping 55 cents last week in the November contract which was kicked off by a bullish WASDE report. November futures remain above all major moving averages. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
On Friday, NOPA crush numbers were released, and July crush jumped to 195.699 million bushels which was well above the average trade guess of 190.8 mb and was a six-month high for the month of July. It was up 5.6% from the June’s 185.27 mb.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 30,660 contracts which reduced their net short position to 35,270 contracts. They sold 10,527 contracts of bean oil and bought back 24,238 contracts of meal.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning and are likely following the downward momentum of corn and soybeans. September Chicago wheat has managed to hold firm support above the 5-dollar mark.
The US dollar is trading higher which may be pressuring the grain complex as a whole. Poor inflation and jobs data released recently, and Jerome Powell will speak at a central bank meeting this week potentially providing a decision on interest rate cuts.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 8,526 contracts which left them with a net short position of 89,295 contracts. They bought back 6,508 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 50,555 contracts.

Amanda Brill