TFM Morning Update 08-21-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning and have maintained support at the $4.00 level this week. September futures are up 2 cents at $3.82 while December is up 1-3/4 to $4.05-3/4.
The ProFarmer tour found yields in Illinois at 199.58 bpa which were below their estimates from last year and below USDA guesses. In Western Iowa, yields were found between 195.03 and 207.25 bpa which were above last year. While yields look promising, some disease risks were found as well.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 950k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,525k tons. This would compare to 1,959k a week ago and 1,410k a year ago.

Soybeans are higher this morning with the September contract up 1-1/4 cents to $10.16-1/4 while November soybeans are up 1 cent at $10.37. September soybean meal is up $0.20 at $292.20 while September soybean oil is up 0.26 cents at 51.46 cents.
In Illinois, the crop tour found soybean pod counts at 1,479.22 per 3’x3′ plot which compared to 1,419.11. Illinois soybeans may be weaker than initially thought. Western Iowa pod counts were better than last year between 1,279.25 in the Northwest and 1,562.54 in the Southwest.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 200k and 1,100k tons with an average guess of 800k tons. This would compare to 755k a week ago and 1,633k a year ago at this time.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with wheat leading the grain complex in general. The lack of a deal between Russia and Ukraine may be supportive or funds may finally be buying back short positions due to oversold conditions.
Russia’s Jul-Aug exports off 38% year over year as new vessel approval rules stall loadings; terminals overflowing with 120 ships awaiting clearance.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 500k and 825k tons with an average guess of 631k. This would compare to 723k tons a week ago and 493k a year ago.

Amanda Brill