TFM Morning Update 08-22-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning in tight rangebound trade that is seeing the December contract struggle to break significantly above the 4-dollar mark. Results from the ProFarmer tour have offered some support as their yield estimates have come in slightly lower than USDA estimates.
Rain chances have improved in Illinois and Iowa over the next 7 days which has taken some of the weather premium out of the market. Both states were expected to be dry and warmer than normal in the short term forecast.
After Argentina’s corn crop suffered through destruction by leafhopper bugs last season, they will now plant the least corn in the past 8 years for the 24/25 season. They are expected to plant 15.6 million acres which is 17% less than last season.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning and have given up all of yesterday’s gains, but the November contract is still 16 cents higher on the week. Rain in the forecast along with farmer selling on rallies has pressured markets.
While the ProFarmer crop tour has seen yields in some areas slightly below the USDA’s forecast, in Illinois, the tour has found that the state’s soybean pod count is the largest seen on the tour since 2000. Corn yields in the state are expected to be the biggest in the history of the tour.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 850k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,308k tons. Reported sales to China and unknown destinations have been abundant so far this week.

Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago slightly lower, KC unchanged, and Minneapolis slightly higher in quiet trade. There have been reports that Chinese wheat production will be record large this year which has weighed on prices.
Spring wheat harvest was 31% complete as of Sunday, this is 5% slower than the average pace. Conditions ratings in the two largest producers, North Dakota and Minnesota remain high at 78% and 87% good to excellent, respectively.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 250k and 600k tons with an average guess of 400k tons. This would compare to 273k last week and 406k at this time a year ago.

Amanda Brill