TFM Morning Update 08-24-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning despite the heat and dry weather on the heels of the crop tour which showed better than expected yields in Illinois.
Pro Farmers crop tour wrapped up in Illinois yesterday with a lot of variability but the average yield pegged at 193.72 bpa which is above both last year and the 3-year average.
The heat is expected to peak today with temperatures cooling off in the following weeks. High 100’s are forecast for Nebraska and Illinois, but after the heat subsides, dry conditions are still expected for another two weeks.
The Argentinian grains exchange is expecting a dry start to their 23/24 corn season and planted corn is estimated at 7.3 million hectares which would be 2.8% times larger than the previous planting.

Soybeans and soybean meal are beginning the day higher while soybean oil trades lower but is still near its recent highs. The tight carryout and hot weather have been supportive of the soy complex.
The Pro Farmer tour finished its rounds of Illinois yesterday and found an average of soybean pod counts in a 3×3 area at 1,270.61 which is above a year ago and the 3-year average.
India’s June palm oil exports rose to 3.45 mmt from 2.23 mmt in May. Output fell to 4.42 mmt, and domestic consumption rose significantly from the previous month.
China is conducting trials on GMO soybeans and corn and surprise, yields were up to 11.6% higher in those trials. China has not yet approved commercial planting of GMO grains.

Wheat is relatively unchanged this morning as markets are unsure how to respond to the death of Wagner Group’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin. First reactions are that it was an act of retaliation by Putin.
Without the Wagner Group’s military, Russia is not expected to be as effective in their war. With Russia the only real game in town for global wheat exports, and they at war, any disruption to their grain infrastructure could have massive impacts on world prices.
Putin has resumed talks to supply free wheat to 6 African countries in the amounts of between 25 and 50 thousand tons as humanitarian aid.
Agritel is expecting that French wheat exports will rise to 17 mmt in 23/24 compared to 16.4 mmt last season supported by strong sales within the EU.

Amanda Brill