TFM Morning Update 08-25-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower again this morning as prices struggle to gain traction despite hot and dry weather and slipping yields in Illinois and Minnesota.
The extreme heat is moving South today but solid rains are still a ways off in the forecast. The 7-day forecast is showing only light scatters of rain over the Corn Belt.
Pro Farmer wrapped up their tour of Iowa and Minnesota yesterday finding average yields of 182.8 bpa in Iowa which is below last year, and 181.34 bpa in Minnesota which is large decline from last year.
In Brazil, second crop corn harvest is still incomplete as they continue to receive rains that are causing delays, but the rains will be helpful for next month’s planting.

Soybeans are higher again this morning and are on track for a gain on the week. Soybean meal is slightly lower while soybean oil is higher.
Soybeans are gaining support from the extreme heat and rain that has been absent for over 10 days in the Midwest during crucial pod filling time.
Yesterday, the Pro Farmer tour was in Iowa and Minnesota and found pod counts in a 3×3 area in Iowa at 1,190.41 which is up from last year and the 3-year average. In Minnesota, counts were at 984.39 which was below last year and the 3-year average.
Yesterday, October soybean meal gained $11.10 which boosted the value of crushed soybeans and should keep processors buying cash beans.

Wheat is trading slightly higher this morning and December KC is actually on track for a slight gain this week. The Dec contracts of all three wheats held above their May lows which could be considered a small win.
These past few weeks in the news have shown plenty of attacks back and forth between Russia and Ukraine with Russia targeting grain facilities and Putin likely killing the Wagner group boss, but wheat prices had very little reaction to these headlines.
The dryness in the US is setting up for good harvest conditions and the spring wheat harvest for both the US and Canada should reach the halfway mark by Monday’s crop progress report.
Canada’s wheat crop estimates will be revised on Tuesday the 29th, and private analysts are expecting that number to be below the USDA estimate of 1.21 billion bushels.

Amanda Brill