TFM Morning Update 08-25-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning with the September contract up 3 cents at $3.91-1/4 and December up 2-1/2 cents at $4.14. December is trading above the 21-day moving average for the first time since July 3 as funds begin exiting short positions.
The ProFarmer Crop Tour projected large yields and a record US corn harvest for 2025, but mentioned disease in the Midwest a number of times that could impact yields at harvest, and this has worried funds. The average yield was pegged at 182.7 bpa which compares to the USDA’s 188.8 bpa.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds buy back a portion of their net short position. They bought back 31,464 contracts which reduced their short position to 144,650 contracts as of August 19.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower with the September contract down 1 cent at $10.35-1/2 while November is down 1/4 cent at $10.58. October soybean meal is up $5.70 at $294 while October soybean meal is down 0.18 cents at 54.77 cents.
Some weakness today could be coming from comments made by China over the weekend. The country said that “rampant” US protectionism threatens agricultural ties as a result of the tariffs. Trade is likely concerned that China does not agree to a trade deal.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 35,273 contracts which flipped their net short position to a net long position of just 3 contracts. They sold 13,070 contracts of bean oil and bought back 24,070 contracts of meal.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with September Chicago wheat up 4-1/2 cents to $5.09 while September KC wheat is 3 cents higher to $5.01. Wheat has been sluggish but has likely been following corn’s recent turn higher.
The Argentinian wheat crop is expected to improve following rains in key areas boosting soil moisture and helping uptake of nutrients as farmers re-fertilize the crop.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as net sellers of Chicago wheat by 8,837 contracts which increased their net short position to 98,132 contracts. They sold 825 contracts of KC wheat which left them short 51,380 contracts.

Amanda Brill