TFM Morning Update 08-26-2022

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

Wheat prices overnight are up 4 3/4 in SRW, up 4 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 6; Soybeans up 8 1/2; Soymeal up $0.41; Soyoil down 0.51.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 20 in SRW, up 20 1/2 in HRW, up 11 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 32 1/4; Soybeans up 33 3/4; Soymeal up $1.57; Soyoil down 0.36.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 32 in SRW, down 11 1/4 in HRW, down 22 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 36; Soybeans down 28 3/4; Soymeal down $0.10; Soyoil down 0.26.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 0% in SRW, up 9% in HRW, down -10% in HRS; Corn is up 12%; Soybeans up 18%; Soymeal up 14%; Soyoil up 22%.

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Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans up 97 yuan; Soymeal down 62; Soyoil down 40; Palm oil down 26; Corn up 7 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 86 ringgit (-2.02%) at 4172.

There were changes in registrations (-61 Soymeal). Registration total: 2,653 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 85 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 25 were: SRW Wheat down 5,603 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,858, Corn down 878, Soybeans up 1,766, Soymeal down 3,800, Soyoil down 2,273.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry west and isolated showers east Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry east and isolated showers west Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal far southeast and above to well above normal northwest Tuesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry north and isolated to scattered showers south Monday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday, above normal far north and near normal elsewhere Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry northeast and isolated showers southwest Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry to isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal north and near normal south Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Saturday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to slightly above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry northwest and isolated to scattered showers southeast Tuesday. Mostly dry east and isolated showers west Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, below to near normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday.

The player sheet for Aug. 25 had funds: net sellers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 6,500 soybeans, sellers of 5,500 soymeal, and sellers of 0 soyoil.


  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought 118,881 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that closed on Thursday.
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 34,025 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Thursday
  • FAILED WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), is believed to have made no purchase of imported wheat in talks with trading houses on Wednesday, without issuing an international tender, traders said. They said prices were too high.
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submitting price offers is Aug. 31.


  • WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency Government Trading Corporation issued an international tender to purchase about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat
  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of rice


  • Nearby basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast eased on Thursday, while premiums at the U.S. Gulf firmed on recent export demand, especially from China, traders said.
    • Soybean barges loaded in August were bid at 300 cents over November futures, down 25 cents from Wednesday, while September CIF soy barges were bid at 185 cents over November, up 3 cents.
    • FOB export premiums for first-half October soybean loadings, the first available delivery period, firmed 10 cents to about 240 cents over November. Last-half October premiums also added 10 cents to around 200 cents over futures.
    • For corn, CIF barges loaded in August were bid at 125 cents over September corn, one cent lower than Wednesday. September corn barges were bid around 103 cents over futures, also down one cent.
    • FOB corn export premiums for September loadings at the Gulf were offered at around 142 cents over September futures, up 4 cents. October premiums firmed by 2 cents to about 146 cents over December.
  • Spot corn basis bids were steady to lower at interior and river elevators around the U.S. Midwest on Thursday and steady to higher at processing plants, grain dealers said.
    • Spot soybean basis bids were mostly unchanged at crush plants and elevators, although the basis fell sharply at one river terminal as a premium quick-ship bid expired.
    • Some grain buyers have lifted spot bids to attract near-term supplies of corn and soybeans ahead of the harvest, while others eased bids in anticipation of newly harvested crops in the coming weeks.
    • A large corn processor in Decatur, Illinois, lifted its spot basis bid by 10 cents on Thursday after lifting its bid by 15 cents on Monday.
  • Spot basis bids for corn delivered to river terminals and ethanol plants around the U.S. Midwest were flat to lower on Thursday, while bids at interior elevators and other processors were mostly unchanged, grain dealers said.
    • Spot soybean basis bids were mostly steady around the region, although one river terminal cut its spot bid sharply as a quick-ship premium expired.
  • Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat held mostly steady around the southern U.S. Plains on Thursday underpinned by muted farmer sales and sharply lower futures prices, grain dealers said.
    • HRW wheat futures contracts 0#KW: fell on Thursday in a technical selling and profit-taking retreat from a 3-1/2 week high posted in the prior session.
    • Protein premiums for wheat delivered by rail to or through Kansas City were down 5 to 12 cents a bushel, according to the latest CME Group data.
  • Spot basis offers for soymeal delivered by rail or truck around the U.S. Midwest were mostly steady to lower on Thursday on light demand and rising supplies of the livestock feed ingredient, dealers said.
    • Gulf basis values were mostly weaker.
    • Basis values have been under pressure this week as Chicago Board of Trade soymeal futures rallied to life-of-contract highs before pulling back on Thursday. The rally chilled end-user demand, dealers said.

USDA Export Sales Report Retraction

During the August 25, 2022, launch of the new Export Sales Reporting and Maintenance System, FAS encountered challenges that affected both the quality and the physical dissemination of our weekly export sales data. The agency is retracting the data published earlier today. Updated data will be made available as soon as all issues are resolved.

CROP TOUR: Iowa Corn Yield Seen Below 2021, Above 3-Year Average

Blistering heat and lower-than-average rainfall hurt corn harvest prospects for crops in Iowa, according to crop scouts on the final day of the Pro Farmer crop tour.

  • NOTE: Iowa is the US’s No. 1 producer of corn and No. 2 producer of soybeans
  • Corn yields averaged 183.81 bu/acre in 497 samples
  • That’s below last year’s average of 190.76 bu/acre and in line with the 3-year average of 180.8
  • “Iowa was disappointing on my route, especially on corn. I don’t think eastern production will be enough to compensate for the western losses,” said Mark Bernard, a crop consultant for Agro-Economics and an eastern leg tour scout


  • Soybean pod count in 3-by-3-foot square averaged 1,174.43 pods after 491 samples
  • That’s below last year’s 1,217.80 pods and above the three-year average of 1,157
  • “Soybeans are kind of the same song, different verse. We started well but other samples were not good. As we headed north we could see that they didn’t have enough rains,” said Bernard
  • NOTE: The crop tour doesn’t project soybean yields
  • NOTE: Thursday was the fourth and final day of the tour; Pro Farmer will issue US nationwide corn and soybean yield estimates on Friday based on a mix of data, including tour findings, weather and acreage adjustments

CROP TOUR: Minnesota Corn Yield Estimate Rises From Last Year

Corn yields in Minnesota avg 190.39 bu/acre, according to 213 samples taken by participants on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour.

  • That’s up from tour avg of 177.44 bu/acre last year, Pro Farmer data show
  • Three-year avg is 180.96 bu/acre
  • Soybean pod count in 3-by-3-foot square avg est. is 1,100.75 pods, according to 209 samples
  • That’s up from 1027.33 pods last year; 1026.16 three-year avg
  • NOTE: Tour doesn’t project soybean yields
  • NOTE: USDA this month forecast Minnesota corn yields at an avg 193 bu/acre; soybean yields 50 bu/acre
  • NOTE: Thursday was fourth and final day of tour; Pro Farmer will issue US nationwide corn and soybean yield estimates on Friday based on a mix of data, including tour findings, weather and acreage adjustments

EU Slashes Corn Crop Estimate by 10% to 59.3M Tons for 2022

Corn production in 27 European member states will total 59.3 million tons in the 2022-23 season, the European Commission says in presentation slides on website.

  • That compares with a July estimate of 65.8 million tons
  • Output will be down 18.4% y/y
  • Commission boosted soft-wheat output est. to 126 million tons vs. 123.9 million tons last month
  • Barley est. cut to 50.4 million tons vs. 51.5 million in July

Argentina Wheat Needs More Rain to Realize Yield Potential

Wheat plants on the Pampas crop belt require more rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says in a weekly report.

The seasonal Santa Rosa storm may only bring moderate, short-lived rains

Argentine Corn Production Estimate Aug. 25: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

  • 2021-22 corn production maintained at 52m tons
  • 100% of the crop is harvested

Canada 2022 Crop Production Survey Ahead of StatsCan Report

The following table shows results of a Bloomberg survey of as many as five analysts about crop production in Canada

USDA Retail Food-Inflation Forecasts for 2022 and 2023

China tells farmers to replant or switch crops

Drought impacts 22,000 sq km of arable land, 350,000 livestock

As China’s record heatwave starts to subside, farmers are assessing the damage caused by a prolonged drought and the government is urging them to replant or switch crops where they can

More than 70 days of extreme temperatures and low rainfall have wreaked havoc along the basin of the Yangtze, which supports more than 450 million people as well as a third of the country’s crops.

Though rain is expected over the coming 10 days, farmers near the depleted Poyang Lake in central China’s Jiangxi province, normally a flood outlet for the Yangtze, worry that the heat has already done too much damage.

The agriculture ministry in an emergency notice on Tuesday called on farmers to harvest and store rice and take action to strengthen grain growth in coming weeks. In areas where the drought has already inflicted heavy damage, farmers are encouraged to switch to late-autumn crops like sweet potatoes, but that is no easy task.

“We can’t switch to other crops because there’s no land,” said Hu Baolin, a 70-year old farmer in a village on the outskirts of Nanchang, Jiangxi’s provincial capital.

He said his plants, including rapeseed oil and sesame, were far less developed compared to normal years, and his pomelos were just a third of their usual size.

Nearby wells were severely depleted, and a gaggle of geese milled around a pond that had completely dried up around 10 days ago. Villagers had also been battling a brush fire nearby.

“Don’t let people see it and think I brought you here on purpose. You can go anywhere you like (in this village), it’s all the same.”

The agriculture ministry said on Tuesday that the hot weather posed a “serious threat” to autumn grain production and urged local governments to “do everything possible” to find more water.

Drones were deployed in the worst hit province of Sichuan in China’s southwest on Thursday to seed clouds and induce rain, while other regions along the Yangtze have been mobilizing firefighters to spray parched crops, state broadcaster CCTV said.

Brazil set to seize massive volumes of illegal pesticides this year, says govt official

Brazil is expected to seize a record 500 tonnes of illegal pesticides in 2022, more than twice the volume in 2020, as the government steps up enforcement amid surging demand for agrochemicals.

The rise in seizures reflects greater cooperation among different government agencies, intended to prevent large criminal organizations from capitalizing on the trade, an agriculture ministry official told Reuters on Thursday.

The flourishing illegal market underscores supply chain risks for global grain traders operating in Brazil, aside from being a public health hazard.

Because Brazil is a tropical country, farmers here require more pesticides to protect crops like corn and soy than competing nations, where the climate is colder.

“Just like a company, organized crime directs its efforts to activities that generate more profits,” said Julio Lima, head of the ministry’s pesticides oversight unit, in an interview. “Gangs are leaning toward agrochemicals because demand and prices rose.”

Criminals smuggle, steal, and adulterate products, he said.

An estimated 25% of Brazil’s pesticides market is comprised of illegal products, according to a study by Idesf, an advocacy group. Lima disputes that estimate, pegging the total at around 15%.

The market is worth $14.9 billion, according to trade group Sindiveg.

Differing regulations for pesticide use are also a problem, as are Brazil’s light penalties for offenders, experts say.

Marco Palhano, border control chief at the federal highway police, told Reuters that the herbicide paraquat, banned in 2020, has been the most commonly seized substance this year.

“Farmers ignore the ban and keep on buying it,” he said.

According to Drugwatcher, the highly toxic paraquat is sprayed on over 50 crops in around 120 countries, including in the United States. But while some 32 nations have banned or restricted use of the substance, exports continue to flow.

Palhano noted paraquat is imported legally by Paraguay and Uruguay from China. Criminals later smuggle it into Brazil.

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Aug. 23: USDA

The following table shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Aug. 23, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

  • Corn area experiencing moderate to intense drought down a point to 27% in the week
  • Soybean drought area fell 4 percentage points to 20%
  • Cotton area in drought eased to 51% from 61%

US Barge Shipments of Grain Fell 33% Last Week: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers declined in the week ending Aug. 20 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

  • Barge shipments of corn fell 40% from the previous week
  • Soybean shipments down 17% w/w



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