CORN

• Corn futures have continued to press higher this morning as ongoing supply concerns support the market. September corn is trading 5 cents higher at $5.05-1/2, while December corn is 4 cents higher at $5.27-1/2.
• The Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated the 2026 U.S. corn yield at 173.2 bpa, well below the USDA’s August estimate of 180.7 bpa, with production projected at 15.344 billion bushels.
• Concerns over yield potential were reinforced by Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report, which showed corn condition ratings falling 3 percentage points to 57% good to excellent, below market expectations.

SOYBEANS

• Soybean futures are trading slightly higher this morning as the market balances recent export demand against uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations. September soybeans are trading 3 cents higher at $12.31, while November soybeans are 2-1/4 cents higher at $12.40.
• Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report showed U.S. soybean condition ratings declined 1 percentage point to 60% good to excellent as of August 23. Ratings are now 9 percentage points below last year and 2 points below the five-year average.
• Fresh export demand is offering support to soybeans, with private exporters reporting a 132,000-metric-ton sale of new-crop U.S. soybeans to an unknown destination, which traders speculate could be China. However, U.S.-China trade tensions remain a source of uncertainty, as the prospect of additional U.S. tariffs raises questions about the durability of Chinese soybean demand.

WHEAT

• The wheat complex is trading higher across the board this morning as the market continues to add risk premium amid ongoing disruptions to Black Sea grain trade. Looking at September contracts, Chicago wheat is 11-1/4 cents higher at $6.96-3/4, Kansas City wheat is 12 cents higher at $7.66-1/2, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 10-1/2 cents higher at $7.04-1/2.
• Escalating attacks between Russia and Ukraine continue to threaten Black Sea grain shipments, raising concerns over the ability of two major wheat exporters to move crops to global markets as harvest progresses. Recent attacks on ports, terminals, and commercial vessels have already disrupted export flows, keeping geopolitical risk elevated in the wheat market.
• The USDA projects Russia to export 46 MMT of wheat in 2026/27, while Ukraine is expected to export 13.5 MMT. Together, the two countries remain major suppliers to the global wheat market, increasing the market’s sensitivity to disruptions in Black Sea trade.

Author

Matthew Lucas