TFM Morning Update 08-28-2023


  • Corn is trading higher this morning but has backed off overnight highs as weather forecasts predict more dryness over the next 7 days.
  • Soil moisture is already dry and the dry 7-day forecast could push corn to mature more quickly which could affect rest weights.
  • The Pro Farmer tour wrapped up last week with an average national yield guess of 172 bpa. The USDA typically estimates yields a few bpa higher than this crop tour.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as net sellers of 33,555 contracts of corn increasing their net short position to 106,135 contracts.


  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with soybean meal while soybean oil is slightly lower. The dry forecast is bullish for soybeans as well as corn.
  • Exports have picked up slightly over the past few weeks for soybeans which is typical this time of year as Brazil shifts their focus to second crop corn exports.
  • Pro Farmers crop tour ended last week with an average yield estimate of 49.7 bpa which compares to the USDA’s guess of 50.9 bpa.
  • Non-commercials were net sellers of soybeans for the week ending August 22 and sold 13,362 contracts reducing their net long position to 50,719 contracts.


  • Wheat is trading lower again this morning and can’t seem to gain any ground despite the bullish weather in the US and gains in other commodities.
  • A second ship that has left Ukraine through the Black Sea in Ukraine’s new humanitarian corridor safely reached Romania despite Russia backing out of the grain deal.
  • Yields for spring wheat in Minnesota and North Dakota are expected to be better than trade initially thought. This is in contrast to the USDA which has shown poor crop conditions.
  • Funds continue to put selling pressure on wheat adding to their net short position again by 5,331 contracts increasing it to 70,921 contracts.


Amanda Brill

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