TFM Morning Update 08-28-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower to start the day giving back a small portion of yesterday’s gains but is still just 6 cents off its contract low in December. Pressure today may be coming from producers taking advantage of yesterday’s move higher and selling old crop.
The corn market may face additional selling pressure this week with Friday being First Notice Day Friday for the September futures contracts, and basis contracts needing to be priced before then.
Estimates for the weekly US ethanol production survey ahead of the EIA report see ethanol production lower than last week at 1.091 million barrels per day. Stockpiles are estimated at 23.557m bbl which would compare to 23.574m a week ago.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning giving back a chunk of yesterday’s rally and 3-day winning streak after beneficial rains fell in the central Corn Belt last night and producers price old crop. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning as well.
Yesterday, funds were estimated to have bought back approximately 2,000 soybean contracts. Funds currently hold a net short position of about 183,000 soybean contracts, 87,000 soybean oil, and are long around 2,000 meal contracts.
The recent rally in soybeans may have to do with the recent hotter temperatures in the eastern Corn Belt with less rainfall which may impact pod fill on later formed pods.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way and all three products near their contract lows from two days ago. Cheaper Russian wheat continues to pressure futures.
Despite production and quality concerns over the European wheat crop, Matif wheat futures have continued to trade lower in recent days, which has pressured US prices. Much of this pressure has likely come from lower Russian export prices, which have trended lower as Russia continues to dominate the world export market.
Yesterday, funds were estimated to have bought back 2,000 contracts of wheat, but over the past 5 days, they are estimated to have added a total of 8,500 new shorts to their already net short position.

Amanda Brill