TFM Morning Update 08-29-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Monday, September 2, in Observance of Labor Day

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after yesterday’s lower close but the December contract continues to hover around the $3.90 mark. Prices are 6 cents off of contract lows as trade anticipates large yields.
Yesterday’s ethanol production report showed record production for the second week of August at 1.071 million barrels per day which compared to the average trade guess of 1.091. Ethanol stocks were nearly unchanged at 23.572m bbl which compared to the trade guess of 23.557.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn exports in a range between 700k and 1,400k tons with and average guess of 1,030k tons. This would compare to 1,410k tons a week ago.

Soybeans are trading significantly higher to start the day wiping out all of yesterday’s losses, but the November contracts has had difficulty breaking above the 20-day moving average. Soybean oil is leading the complex higher and soybean meal is higher as well.
Higher prices this morning are likely a result of a change in the 8 to 14-day forecast that are showing drier conditions. There is rain for the Corn Belt in the 7-day forecast but it is scattered, and soybeans that stay dry may see lower yields.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean exports in a range between 1,400k and 2,550k tons with an average trade guess of 1,790k tons. This would compare to 1,633k tons last week.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC trading lower while Minneapolis wheat is slightly higher. Yesterday, Chicago wheat made a reversal higher, and all three products remains off of last week’s lows.
The Canadian wheat crop is being estimated at 34.4 mmt for 2024 which would be 4.3% above last year’s production according to Statistics Canada. A Bloomberg survey estimated production at 33.8 mmt.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat exports in a range between 300k and 650k tons with an average trade guess of 455k tons. This would compare to last week’s 493k tons.

Amanda Brill