TFM Morning Update 08-30-2022

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


Wheat prices overnight are down 7 1/4 in SRW, down 7 1/4 in HRW, down 9 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/4; Soybeans down 18 1/4; Soymeal down $0.57; Soyoil down 0.64.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 30 1/4 in SRW, up 23 in HRW, up 14 in HRS; Corn is up 9 1/2; Soybeans down 41 3/4; Soymeal down $0.71; Soyoil down 1.08.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 9 3/4 in SRW, up 23 3/4 in HRW, up 5 in HRS; Corn is up 53 3/4; Soybeans down 49; Soymeal up $2.90; Soyoil up 0.14.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 6% in SRW, up 14% in HRW, down -8% in HRS; Corn is up 14%; Soybeans up 14%; Soymeal up 14%; Soyoil up 24%.


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Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans down 10 yuan; Soymeal down 22; Soyoil down 60; Palm oil down 52; Corn up 12 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 14 ringgit (-0.34%) at 4160.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,653 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 61 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 29 were: SRW Wheat down 8,835 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,656, Corn down 5,135, Soybeans up 350, Soymeal down 5,646, Soyoil down 4,024.

U.S. Agriculture weekly export sales data unavailable until further notice -USDA

The U.S. Agriculture Department (USDA) said in a statement on Monday that weekly export sales data would not be available until further notice. The department last week retracted weekly commodities export data it had released on Thursday after a technical misstep left traders scrambling and caused uncertainty in the futures markets.

Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above to well above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday, in Texas Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers in Texas Saturday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Saturday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for Aug. 29 had funds: net buyers of 13,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 12,500 corn, buyers of 8,500 soybeans, sellers of 0 soymeal, and sellers of 1,500 soyoil.


  • WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins for shipment to two relatively small ports
  • SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued international tenders to purchase around 30,000 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically modified organisms
  • WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: Bangladesh’s state grains buying agency has postponed the deadline for submission of price offers in its international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of wheat from Sept. 1 to Sept. 18


  • WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency Government Trading Corporation issued an international tender to purchase about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat
  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of rice.


  • Basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to U.S. Gulf Coast export terminals were steady to lower on Monday, although nearby values remained at a steep premium to deferred bids due to tight spot supplies, brokers said.
    • Nearby cost, insurance and freight (CIF) values slipped from last week’s highs as harvesting was expected to ramp up in the coming weeks.
    • A slow start to soy harvesting in the U.S. Delta due to rain stoked concerns that supplies may remain tight for longer than expected. A recent jump in demand from China for early 2022/23 marketing year shipments also helped to prop up spot prices.
    • Soybean barges loaded in August traded as high as 360 cents over November futures on Monday, down from trades at 390 over on Friday, traders said. Soy barges loaded in early September were bid at around 205 cents over futures, while full-month September loadings were bid around 190 cents over futures.
    • Soybean export premiums were firm on tight supplies and solid demand. Early October soybean export premiums were quoted around 250 cents over November, up 5 cents.
    • CIF corn basis bids were steady to firm on thin spot supplies, though gains were limited due to muted export demand.
    • CIF barges loaded in August were bid 135 cents over September futures while September barges were bid around 106 cents over, both up 2 cents.
    • September corn export premiums were up 3 cents at 145 cents over futures.
  • Spot basis bids for corn and soybeans were steady to firm at U.S. Midwest river terminals on Monday, grain dealers said.
    • Bids were mostly unchanged around the interior of the region but the soybean basis dropped by 15 cents per bushel at a processor in Des Moines, Iowa, while bids for corn shipped by rail fell by 5 cents a bushel in Evansville, Indiana.
    • Cash bids for soft red winter wheat were unchanged but dealers did begin rolling their basis bids December from September.
    • Farmers were busy booking sales of soft red winter wheat, a dealer in Ohio said.
    • CBOT soft red winter wheat futures have rallied for six of the last seven sessions, hitting their highest level since July 12 and pulling cash prices higher.
    • Sales of corn and soybeans were slow.
    • Farmers were reluctant to book deals for corn despite prices surging to their highest level since late June due to concerns that a smaller-than-expected corn harvest will lead to further gains in the futures market in the coming weeks.
  • Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat were flat at grain terminals across the southern U.S. Plains on Monday, dealers said.
    • Farmer selling was slow despite a rally in the futures market.
    • Prices remained well below peaks hit earlier this year despite the rally, keeping farmers’ interest in booking new deals chilly, an Oklahoma dealer said.
    • Dealers began rolling their basis bids to the K.C. December from September contract.
  • Spot basis bids for corn were steady to weak at ethanol plants and river terminals around the U.S. Midwest on Monday, grain dealers said.
    • The corn basis was steady to firm at processors, rising by 15 cents a bushel in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
    • Corn bids were flat at the region’s interior elevators.
    • Cash bids for soybeans held steady at elevators, processor and river terminals around the region.
  • U.S. spot cash millfeed prices held mostly steady around the United States on Monday, underpinned by tight supplies in some markets and rising feed grain prices, brokers said.
  • Spot basis offers for soymeal held steady at most processors in both the U.S. rail and truck markets on Monday, dealers said.
    • Demand was strong, an Indiana dealer said.
    • End users who had been delaying purchases because of high prices were forced to come to the market as their supplies were running low.
    • But maintenance shutdowns at processors around the Midwest were keeping prices strong as supplies remained tight, the dealer said.
    • Although the basis was mostly steady, offers fell by $10 a ton at a truck market processor in Council Bluffs, Iowa.

US Crop Progress and Conditions for Aug. 28: Summary

US Inspected 689k Tons of Corn for Export, 437k of Soybean

In week ending Aug. 25, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

  • Soybeans: 437k tons vs 687k the previous wk, 387k a yr ago
  • Corn: 689k tons vs 822k the previous wk, 583k a yr ago
  • Wheat: 521k tons vs 594k the previous wk, 435k a yr ago

Brazil 2022/2023 Soy Crop Seen At 151.8 Million Tns – Datagro


Brazil’s 2022/23 soybean crop seen at 151 mln T – Abiove

Brazilian farmers will reap an estimated 151 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2022/23 cycle that will begin in September, according to Abiove, an oilseeds lobby, which presented the forecast at an industry event on Monday.

The projection is roughly in line with the government’s, which said last week it expects record Brazilian soybean production of above 150 million tonnes, driven by potentially higher yields and area expansion.

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 0.4% Y/y; Data May Be Incomplete

EU soft-wheat exports during the season that began July 1 reached 4.86m tons as of Aug. 28, compared with 4.88m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Monday on its website.

  • It said the data may not be complete
  • Top destinations are Algeria (899k tons), Morocco (823k tons) and Egypt (420k tons)
  • EU barley exports at 1.52m tons, versus 2.67m tons a year earlier
  • EU corn imports at 3.87m tons, versus 2.6m tons a year earlier

EU soybean imports by Aug. 28 at 1.96 mln T, rapeseed 972,567 T

European Union soybean imports in the 2022/23 season that started on July 1 had reached 1.96 million tonnes by Aug. 28, provisional data published by the European Commission showed on Monday.

That compared with 2.22 million tonnes by the same week in the previous 2021/22 season, the data showed.

EU rapeseed imports had reached 972,567 tonnes, compared with 617,850 tonnes a year earlier.

Soymeal imports over the same period totalled 2.37 million tonnes against 2.58 million tonnes the prior season, while palm oil imports stood at 523,987 million tonnes versus 1.00 million tonnes in 2021/22.

EU sunflower oil imports, most of which usually come from Ukraine, were at 261,924 tonnes, against 261,468 tonnes a year earlier, the data showed.

The Commission, which has reported repeated technical problems in the past weeks, said the data may again be incomplete.

Corn, Wheat Vessels Authorized to Leave Ports in Ukraine: JCC

Six vessels carrying a total of 121,451 metric tons of grain and food products are authorized to leave Ukraine on Tuesday, the Joint Coordination Centre says in an emailed statement.

  • The Seajoy vessel is carrying 64,215 tons of corn from the Chornomorsk port to Tarragona, Spain
    • Michalis: 33k tons of corn from Odesa to Cartagena, Spain
    • Simas: 15k tons of wheat from Odesa to Italy
    • Saffet Aga: 3,236 tons of corn from Chornomorsk to Tekirdag, Turkey
    • Afanasiy Matyushenko: 3k tons of wheat from Chornomorsk to Tekirdag, Turkey
    • Lady Zehma: 3k tons of corn from Chornomorsk to Ravenna, Italy
  • Karteria, going from Yuhzny/Pivdennyi to Turkey and carrying 37,500 tons of wheat bought by World Food Programme, delayed Monday departure to Tuesday: JCC
  • So far, 1.3M tons of grain and other food products have been shipped under the initiative to ensure safe transport of food and fertilizer in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Canada 2022 Wheat Crop Est. 34.6M Tons, Canola 19.5M: StatsCan

Wheat production seen 55.1% higher vs last year’s crop, according to estimates released Monday by Statistics Canada on its website.

  • In a Bloomberg survey, analysts were expecting 34.3m tons
  • Durum wheat production seen rising 113.1% y/y to 6.5m tons; survey avg 6m tons
  • Canola production seen rising 41.7% y/y to 19.5m tons; survey avg 19m tons

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 94,2% Done as of Aug. 29: AgRural

Brazil Center-South corn harvest was at 89,5% a week earlier and 89% a year ago, consultancy firm AgRural said in a report today.

Last week’s drier weather favored the progress of work in the later calendar areas, with good progress recorded especially in Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo states, AgRural said

 WHEAT/CEPEA: Crops conditions worsen in BR; wheat harvesting is slow

There have been frosts in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná States in the second fortnight of August, making wheat farmers concerned. Although it is not possible to assess the damages on the crops that were hit, data show that crops conditions have worsened in PR.

According to data from Seab/Deral, after the recent frosts, 80% of the crops in PR are in good conditions; 17%, in average conditions; and 3%, in bad conditions.

Concerning the harvesting, activities have been slow and are expected to step up in late September. According to Seab/Deral, 2% of the wheat crops in PR have been harvested. Deral revised up the wheat area in PR to 1.18 million hectares, leading to an output of 3.9 million tons. In Rio Grande do Sul, according to Emater, wheat sowing ended last week. According to data from Conab, by August 20th, 4% of the national wheat crop had been harvested in Brazil.

BRAZILIAN MARKET – Deals have been occasional in the domestic market, amid low wheat supply and farmers/purchasers waiting for the harvesting to step up to return to the spot market.

Cepea, surveys show that, between August 19 and 26, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) dropped by 2.82% in Santa Catarina and by 1.01% in Paraná, but increased by 0.68% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations decreased by 2.59% in PR, 1.58% in São Paulo and 1.17% in RS, rising by a slight 0.19% in SC. In the same period, the US dollar rose by 1.95%, to BRL 5.074 on Friday, 26.

 Top EU Corn Exporter Forced to Harvest Early After Drought

Romania, the European Union’s largest corn exporter last season, is being forced to harvest this year’s crop a month earlier than usual after a severe drought impacted the development of the plants.

While the country’s wheat output is projected to decline about 15% from last year to 9 million tons, corn production has been harder hit by the lack of rain, especially in the south and east, Agriculture Minister Petre Daea said in a phone interview on Monday. Farmers have also started harvesting sunflower crops early, he said.

“Preliminary data for sunflower seeds show that we’ll be able to cover our internal consumption and maybe something extra, but for the corn production things are still uncertain,” Daea said.

Romania won’t consider banning grain exports, as it did briefly at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, despite the lower production and increased protectionism over food security elsewhere, Premier Nicolae Ciuca told Bloomberg earlier this month. The country was also the EU’s second-largest wheat exporter after France.



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