TFM Morning Update 08-31-2022

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


Wheat prices overnight are down 8 1/2 in SRW, down 9 in HRW, down 9 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/2; Soybeans down 13; Soymeal down $0.42; Soyoil down 0.34.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 1/2 in SRW, up 6 1/2 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans down 41 3/4; Soymeal down $0.82; Soyoil down 0.87.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 14 in SRW, up 7 1/4 in HRW, down 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 48 3/4; Soybeans down 49; Soymeal up $1.80; Soyoil up 0.35.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 3% in SRW, up 14% in HRW, down -8% in HRS; Corn is up 13%; Soybeans up 14%; Soymeal up 12%; Soyoil up 26%.

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Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans down 64 yuan; Soymeal down 4; Soyoil down 44; Palm oil down 30; Corn down 7 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 30 ringgit (-0.72%) at 4144.

There were changes in registrations (431 SRW Wheat). Registration total: 3,084 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 61 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 30 were: SRW Wheat down 2,773 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,263, Corn down 14,408, Soybeans up 2,042, Soymeal down 5,542, Soyoil up 660.

Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Thursday

.Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south through Saturday. 6Outlook: Isolated showers in Texas Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. Outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

The player sheet for Aug. 30 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,500 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and unchanged soyoil.


  • CORN SALE: South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has bought an estimated 137,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in an international tender which closed on Tuesday
  • WHEAT SALE: Jordan has purchased 60,000 tonnes of wheat from CHS in an international tender, a government source told Reuters on Tuesday.
  • WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has started buying milling wheat in an international tender that closed on Tuesday and sought limited shipments to two ports only, European traders said in initial assessments. The purchase was expected to be sourced from Russia, although technically supplies are optional origin.
  • SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 264,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2022/23 marketing year.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy 95,497 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders that will close on Thursday.
  • FAILED FEED WHEAT TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in a tender for up to 100,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat which closed on Tuesday.


  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of rice
  • SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 30,000 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically modified organisms
  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buying agency postponed the deadline for submission of price offers in its international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of wheat from Sept. 1 to Sept. 18.


  • Basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to U.S. Gulf Coast export terminals were mostly steady to lower on Tuesday as demand for spot loadings slipped, but the market remained inverted on tight supplies of export-grade beans, traders said.
    • Some concerns about rain-damaged soy in the Delta has boosted demand for Midwest soybeans to “blend up” quality for export, traders said.
    • U.S. soybeans are priced competitively with Brazilian supplies for shipments to Asia, traders said. Demand from China was rising as the top importer has been booking new-crop U.S. shipments.
    • Soybean barges loaded in August were bid around 305 cents over November futures, 10 cents lower from bids on Monday and down from trades as high as 390 cents over November futures on Friday, traders said.
    • Soybean export premiums were firm on tight supplies and solid demand. Early October soybean export premiums were quoted around 250 cents over November.
    • Corn barge basis bids were steady with a firm tone on thin spot supplies. The market was capped by muted export demand as South American supplies undercut U.S. prices.
    • CIF barges loaded in August were bid steady at 135 cents over September futures. September barges were bid a penny higher at around 106 cents over futures.
    • September corn export premiums were up 3 cents at 148 cents over futures.
  • Spot basis bids for soybeans and corn held steady at processors and elevators around the interior of the U.S. Midwest on Tuesday, grain dealers said.
    • Along rivers, the cash basis for soybeans was steady to firm and the cash basis for corn was steady to weak.
    • Farmer sales of both commodities was slow, as weakness in the futures market pulled cash prices lower.
  • Spot cash millfeed prices were steady to higher around the United States on Tuesday, supported by tight supplies and strong demand for the animal feed ingredient, brokers said.
    • Upcoming flour mill downtime around the U.S. Labor Day holiday limited available supplies of millfeed and underpinned spot prices. One large mill in the Buffalo, New York, market is due to be down all of next week, a broker said.
  • Spot basis bids for soybeans fell at processors in the western half of the U.S. Midwest on Tuesday morning, dealers said.
    • Processor bids for soybeans were flat at processors east of the Mississippi River.
    • The soybean basis was steady to firm at river terminals, with strong export demand underpinning basis levels, and steady at interior elevators.
    • Farmer sales of soybeans were slow, an Iowa dealer said, with recent weakness in the futures market chilling growers’ interest in booking new deals.
    • The harvest of what is expected to be a massive soybean crop is set to begin in the coming weeks and farmers will likely deliver huge amounts of supplies to the region’s elevators and processors.
    • Cash bids for corn were steady to weak at river terminals, and unchanged at processors, elevators and ethanol plants around the interior.
  • Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat were steady to firm at truck market terminals in Kansas on Tuesday, underpinned by slow farmer sales in recent weeks, grain dealers said.
    • Cash bids for hard red winter wheat were unchanged at rail and truck market elevators across the rest of the southern U.S. Plains.
    • Farmers have been reluctant to book new deals after finishing up harvest and putting crops in storage bins.
    • Dealers continued rolling their basis bids to the K.C. December from September.
    • Protein premiums for wheat delivered by rail to or through Kansas City fell by 20 cents a bushel for wheat with protein content between 12.6% and 14%, according to the latest CME Group data
    • Premiums were unchanged for wheat with protein content of less than 12.6%.
  • Spot basis offers for U.S. soymeal weakened at rail market processors on Tuesday, brokers said.
    • The truck market basis was steady to weak at processors around the Midwest, falling by $10 per ton in Mankato, Minnesota.
    • Strong profit margins have caused soy processors to boost their run rate, leading to abundant soymeal supplies available on the cash market, a rail broker said.

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Aug. 26 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

  • Production seen lower than last week at 971k b/d
  • Would be the lowest weekly output since April
  • Stockpile avg est. 23.877m bbl vs 23.807m a week ago

Drought Triggers ‘Catastrophic’ Corn Harvest in France: Agritel

Agritel forecasts a “catastrophic” corn harvest in France this year at 10.8m tons, the lowest in more than 20 years, as drought affects crops across the continent, according to a statement.

  • France 2022 wheat production is estimated at 33.63m tons, or 1.3m tons below the five-year average, Agritel says
    • Current unprecedented pace of exports won’t be able to hold; more than 2.5m tons were exported in July-August, just 25% of an export potential Agritel estimates to be 10.2m tons
    • Rises in production and fertilizer costs could harm sector if wheat prices drop next year
  • “The wheat production of the five major exporters outside the Black Sea is barely progressing compared to last year. It will not allow them to cover a failure of Ukraine or Russia,” analyst Nathan Cordier said at a briefing
  • Russia can compensate for shortfall of wheat from Ukraine, but Russian exports in July-August declined 17%: Agritel

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 5.284 mln Tns in August – Anec


MGEX Spring Wheat Stocks Down 42.6% From Year Ago: Aug. 28

Stocks of hard spring wheat stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses fell to 14.798m bushels in the week ending Aug. 28, according to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange’s weekly report.

  • Stockpiles rose by 14k bu from the previous week
  • Stockpiles in Duluth/Superior warehouses down 11k bu

USDA July soybean crush seen at 180.5 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush likely rose to 5.416 million short tons in July, or 180.5 million bushels, according to the average forecast of eight analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.

The July crush would be up from a nine-month low of 174.1 million bushels processed in June and well above the 166.3 million bushels crushed in July 2021. It would also be the second-largest July crush on record, behind only July 2020 when crushers processed 184.5 million bushels of soybeans.

Crush estimates ranged from 179.0 million bushels to 181.7 million bushels, with a median of 180.5 million bushels.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Thursday.

U.S. soyoil stocks as of July 31 were estimated to have dropped to 2.221 billion lbs, a 10-month low, based on the average of estimates from six analysts. The stocks would be down from 2.316 billion lbs at the end of June but up from supplies totaling 2.070 billion lbs at the end of July last year.

Estimates for soyoil stocks ranged from 2.190 billion to 2.278 billion lbs, with a median of 2.217 billion lbs.

National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) members, which account for about 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 170.220 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 3.4% from June and up 9.7% from July 2021. Soyoil supplies held by NOPA members as of July 31 fell to 1.684 billion lbs, the smallest end-of-month stocks since August.

Argentine grains producers have sold 51.6% of 21/22 soybeans so far -government

Argentina’s grain producers have sold 51.6% of the 2021/22 soybean harvest so far, the country’s Ministry of Agriculture said on Tuesday, lagging behind the 62% sales rate reported at the same point in the previous season.

Argentina soybean production in the 2021/22 cycle was 44 million tonnes, down from 46 million tonnes the previous cycle, according to government data, with the country serving as the world’s leading exporter of meal derived from the oilseed.

Sales have slowed as Argentina faces an inflation crisis, prompting farmers to push for a devaluation of the pesos to improve the dollar value of their grains.

From Aug. 18 to 24, local producers sold 350,000 tonnes of 2021/22 soybeans to agro-exporters.

Meanwhile, producers have already sold 64% of the corn for 2021/22 cycle, on par with the figures reported last August.

The 2021/22 corn harvest totaled 59 million tonnes, down from 60.5 million in the previous cycle, according to government data, whose calculations include the grains used as field fodder.

With the harvesting of Argentine soybeans and corn for the season now complete, sowing for the 2022/23 cycle will begin between September and October.

Separately, Argentina’s 2022/2023 wheat harvest will begin in November, with the latest official data showing the fields to be mostly in a positive condition after rains. [nL6N3010EU]

The government has not yet estimated the harvest for the new cereal campaign, although the Rosario grains exchange estimated wheat production for 22/23 at 17.7 million tonnes.

Malaysia Aug. Palm Oil Exports +1.6% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s Aug. palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

  • Total exports for Aug. 2022: 1.299m tons
  • Crude palm oil exports: 297,565 tons, 22.9% of total
  • EU led all destinations for total exports: 371,400 tons

Poland, Ukraine to Work on Vegetable Oil Pipeline Project

Polish government agrees to sign MoU with Ukraine on vegetable oil pipeline, it says on website.

  • The pipeline would transport vegetable oil from Ukraine to Polish Baltic Sea port of Gdansk
  • Countries to set up working group; MoU is valid for 3 years, with an option to extend
  • The pipeline “will help unblock Ukraine’s export and boost food security in developing countries at risk of hunger. It should ease the migration pressure on Europe”

Indonesia Keeps Palm Oil Export Tax at $74/Ton for Sept. 1-15

Indonesia revises crude palm oil reference price to $929.66/ton for Sept. 1-15, Musdhalifah Machmud, deputy for food and agriculture at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, says in text messages.

  • NOTE: Govt previously said reference price set at $930.02/ton for the period
  • Revised reference price means export tax is kept at $74/ton for first half of September
  • Trade ministry’s secretary for directorate general of foreign trade Asep Asmara confirmed the reference price
  • Trade minister’s decree on reference price will be issued soon

Corn-Carrying Vessels Authorized to Leave Ports in Ukraine: JCC

Three vessels carrying a total of 107k metric tons of grain and food products are authorized to leave Ukraine on Wednesday, the Joint Coordination Centre says in an emailed statement.

  • The Maran Astronomer is carrying 74,500 metric tons of corn from Yuhzny/Pivdennyi to Spain
  • Lady Aillar is hauling 27k metric tons of corn from Yuhzny/Pivdennyi to Tarragona, Spain
  • Hazar S is transporting 5,500 metric tons of corn from Chornomorsk to Bandirma, Turkey
  • Also, Afanasiy Matyushenko, carrying 3k metric tons of wheat, delayed its scheduled departure of Tuesday to Wednesday from Chornomorsk to Tekirdag, Turkey
  • So far, 1.4M metric tons of grain and other food products have been shipped under the initiative to ensure safe transport of food and fertilizer in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Manitoba Says Harvest Progress ‘Well Behind’ Five-Year Average

Harvest is 3% complete, well behind the five-year average of 39%, the province’s agriculture ministry says Tuesday in a report.

  • Delayed seeding, high humidity and frequent rainfall have slowed crop drydown
  • Crop conditions look good to very good in most parts of Manitoba
  • Warm, sunny weather expected to help spring wheat harvest advance this week

US Corn Plantings Seen Rising Next Year, Soybeans Lower: Survey

US farmers are expecting to plant a total of 94.3m acres of corn next year, a 5% increase from USDA estimates for 2022 if realized, a Farm Futures survey found.

  • Projected seedings would be the largest amount of US planted corn since 2013, said Farm Futures analyst Jacqueline Holland
  • Soybean acres for 2023 came in at 87.3m, down 0.8% from this year’s estimated plantings
  • Farm Futures calculates 7.5% more US winter wheat acres planted this fall vs last year, raising the 2023 crop total to 36.6m acres
    • That would mark the largest winter wheat crop in the country since the 2015-16 crop planted in fall of 2014
  • Spring and durum wheat growers reported expectations to plant 5.4% fewer acres in 2023 vs this year’s combined acreage of 13m acres for all spring wheat varieties
    • That would be the 10th smallest US spring wheat crop planted since records began in 1926
  • Total US wheat sowings are projected to rise to 48.8m acres, the eighth smallest total wheat crop in US history if realized
  • NOTE: The survey taken July 13-Aug. 1 includes 692 farmer responses

USDA Sees Agriculture Exports Down in 2023 on Lower Cotton, Beef

The USDA projects fiscal year 2023 exports to fall by $2.5b to $193.5b, according to the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report released on Tuesday.

  • Cotton exports seen falling by $1.8b to $7b
  • Beef sales seen falling by $1.1b to $9.8b
  • Meanwhile, soybean exports seen increasing by $2.2b
  • The US leading export destination remains China at $36b, unchanged from the 2022 est.

Indonesia May Import GMO Soybean Seeds to Boost Local Output

Indonesia plans to import genetically-modified soybean seeds to increase domestic production and reduce imports of the commodity, says Kasdi Subagyono, secretary general of agriculture ministry.

  • Expansion of soybean planting areas are limited due to lack of seeds supply, Subagyono tells parliament on Wednesday
  • Seed imports may be required while the government develops local seeds
  • Govt is seeking to increase local food crops production, particularly the ones that are sensitive to inflation, such as chili and shallots

Corteva, BASF Announce Collaboration on Herbicide-Tolerant Soy

Corteva and BASF announced a “strategic cross-licensing agreement” on herbicide-tolerant soybeans and corresponding herbicides for farmers in North America and elsewhere, according to a release Tuesday at the Farm Progress Show in Iowa.

  • BASF will license a proprietary gene to Corteva to develop new trait stack that will be licensed to independent seed companies to help control weeds in soy fields
  • Commercialization is anticipated in the “early 2030s” pending regulatory approval

WMO forecasts first ‘triple-dip’ La Nina of the century

The La Nina weather pattern will last until at least the end of the year, becoming the first time this century it will have spanned three consecutive northern winters, the World Meteorological Organization predicted on Wednesday.

La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific strengthened as trade winds intensified in mid-July to mid-August, affecting temperatures and precipitation patterns and exacerbating drought and flooding in different parts of the world.

The WMO’s El Nino/La Nina Update foresaw the current La Nina – which started in September 2020 – continuing over the next six months, with a 70% chance in September-November 2022 and decreasing to 55% in December-February 2022-2023.

La Nina refers to the cooling of ocean surface temperatures coupled with winds and rainfall. It usually has the opposite impact on weather and climate as El Nino, which is the warm phase of the so-called El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

“It is exceptional to have three consecutive years with a La Nina event. Its cooling influence is temporarily slowing the rise in global temperatures – but it will not halt or reverse the long-term warming trend,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement.

He said the worsening drought in the Horn of Africa and southern South America bore the hallmarks of La Nina, as did above-average rainfall in southeast Asia and Australasia.

“The new La Nina Update unfortunately confirms regional climate projections that the devastating drought in the Horn of Africa will worsen and affect millions of people,” he added.




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