TFM Morning Update 09-01-2023

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
September 4, in observance of Labor Day

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning as hot and dry weather threatens yields, but the upcoming harvest has put a damper on prices.
Yesterday’s export sales numbers were solid and a good improvement with the US moving from a new crop sales deficit of over 125 mb to just under 60 mb.
September’s WASDE report may show reduced yield numbers but may also show increases in acreage which could offset some of the production from yield loss and still leave the US with a carryout above 2 billion bushels.
In Argentina, production estimates for corn have stayed steady at 34 mmt and harvest is now 98.9% complete.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with both soybean meal and oil. Crude oil is higher again today which has been supportive of bean oil.
While weather remains hot and dry, chances for rain have improved slightly for the next week but rainfall totals would still be low, and temperatures may not be as hot as expected.
US soybean offers for October through January are on par with Brazilian offers which have seen US exports pick up significantly over the past few weeks.
Barge rates are soaring to over 42% this year as water levels in the Mississippi River fall again with little rain forecast to help. Barge rates are currently 85% over the 3-year average.

Wheat is trading higher this morning along with corn and beans as contracts attempt to find a bottom where prices are more competitive globally.
With spring wheat yields coming in better than expected, Minn futures have had a hard time finding as much momentum as the Chicago contract which is already nearing competitive prices for exports.
The UN has sent Russia more bids to revive the Black Sea grain deal, but at this point, it isn’t looking like they will rejoin unless unlikely demands are met.
Australia has been dealing with hot and dry weather which has seriously impacted yields lowering their wheat outlook. China is a key buyer for Australian wheat.

Amanda Brill