TFM Morning Update 09-02-2025

CORN

Technical buying and short covering have supported the corn market into the end of August. December corn futures finished the month trading higher on Friday’s close. The first positive month since May. An improved technical picture should keep buyers active. Dec corn futures have traded higher 5 out of the 6 years in the month of September.
Current dry weather forecasts and disease concern have the market pricing in a small overall crop compared to the USDA August forecast. With the strong export demand the feeling of the corn supply picture tightening overall is supporting the market.
Demand for US corn is pushing record start to the marketing year. Current corn export sales on the books are the second best in the past 25 years. Another strong week of sales this week could like make the 2025-26 Marketing year the strongest start ever, eclipsing the 2021-22 marketing year.

Lack of a potential trade deal with China from this past week of negotiations is pressuring the market and Chinese buyer look to Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay for soybean supplies in the window they typically buy US soybeans.
Dry weather forecast support the soybean market as areas on the corn belt have seen there driest August in over 100 years. The poor finishing weather will likely limit the potential final crop size as harvest approaches.
Despite the lack of Chinese soybean exports sales, purchases of US soybeans by non-China buyers are off to a strong start. Reported sales excluding China and Unknown destinations are off to the strongest start since 2018-19 as other countries have sources soybeans from the United States. Regardless, US still will need Chinese purchases to hit projected export targets for the 2025-26 marketing year.

Wheat is trading lower following the long weekend with December Chicago wheat down 9-1/2 cents to $5.24-3/4 while Dec KC wheat is down 9 cents at $5.10-3/4. Larger Russian production may be pressuring wheat.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of wheat. They bought back 23,528 contracts of Chicago wheat reducing their net short position to 81,587 contracts. They bought back 2,699 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 48,681 contracts.
SovEcon raised their 25/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 43.7MMT from 43.3MMT noting better crop prospects, but quality issues are a concern and may impact yields.

Amanda Brill