TFM Morning Update 09-04-2025

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower again this morning but has held relatively firm as soybeans and wheat sell off. December corn is down 3/4 cents to $4.17-1/2 while March is down 1/4 cent to $4.35-3/4.
Estimates for the weekly EIA report see ethanol production lower than last week at 1.067 million barrels per day, and the average stockpile estimate is 22.442m bbl compared to 22.549m a week ago.
Private analyst firm Allendale released an estimate for corn production yesterday of 16.63 billion bushels with a yield of 187.52 bpa. This is much closer to the USDA estimate rather than ProFarmers 182.3 bpa.

Soybeans are lower again this morning and are on track for a third consecutively lower close. Prices are at support at the 200-day average. November soybeans are down 5-3/4 cents to $10.25-3/4, October soybean meal is down $0.40 to $277.20, and October bean oil is down 0.24 cents to 51.20 cents.
Yesterday, Allendale projected that the national soybean yield would come in near 53.28 bpa with production at 4.27 bb. This would be slightly below the USDA estimate.
US soybean crushings were seen at 204.8 million bushels in July which was up 5.9% from the same period last year and above June crushings of 196.9 mb. The increase in crush is creating a large supply of meal which weighs on prices.

All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day. December Chicago wheat is down 6-3/4 cents at $5.15-1/4 while December KC is down 5-3/4 cents to $5.04-1/2.
SovEcon raised their 25/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 43.7MMT from 43.3MMT noting better crop prospects, but quality issues are a concern and may impact yields.
The Crop Progress report saw the spring wheat harvest 72% complete as of Sunday which is up from 53% the previous week and the 5-year average of 69%.

Amanda Brill