TFM Morning Update 09-05-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after yesterday’s prices dropped to support at the 50-day moving average. December corn is up 2-1/4 cents to $4.22 while March is up 2 cents to 4.39-1/2.
US ethanol stocks rose by 0.1% to 22.564 m bbl, which was up from expectations of 22.442m. Plant production was higher at 1.075 million barrels per day, which was also above the survey average of 1.067m.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 900k and 2,200k tons with an average guess of 1,383k tons. This would compare to 2,072k a week ago and 1,649k a year ago at this time.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning following yesterday’s reversal higher. November soybeans are up 2 cents at $10.35, while March is also up 2 cents, trading at $10.68-3/4. October bean meal is up $2.00 at $282.10, while October bean oil is up 0.25 cents at 51.76 cents.
StoneX has revised their estimates for the 25/26 soybean yield lower to 53.2 bpa. This would be slightly below the USDA’s estimate but is on par with Allendale’s last guess of 53.28 bpa. Production is estimated at 4,257 mb.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 500k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 900k tons. This would compare to 1,183k last week and 1,431k a year ago at this time.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning and have rebounded after yesterday’s Chicago wheat made a new contract low. December Chicago wheat is up 3-3/4 cents to $5.23-1/4 while December KC wheat is up 3 cents to $5.09-1/4.
Russia has reportedly harvested 100 mmt of grain so far with expectations that total production will reach at least 135 mmt. Wheat production in Russia has exceeded expectations, which has pressured the market.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 350k and 700k tons with an average guess of 492k tons. This would compare to 580k a week ago and 330k tons a year ago at this time.

Amanda Brill