TFM Morning Update 09-07-2023


  • Corn is unchanged to start the day with little reaction to the hot and dry conditions. Harvest is nearing and the crop is pretty well made at this point.
  • The 7-day forecast features better chances for rain in the western Corn Belt while the rest of the Belt is expected to receive very limited showers.
  • Most private analysts are estimating yields above 170 bpa, but things could change quickly when the USDA updates their estimates on Tuesday.
  • The USDA has previously estimated 94.1 million acres of planted corn which could be adjusted in the WASDE report. This comes at the same time that Brazil harvests a record crop.


  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning after yesterday’s higher close with both soybean meal and oil lower. Trade has been rangebound and will likely continue that way until the USDA report is released.
  • Analysts are anticipating yields between 49 and 50 bpa, but the planting estimate of just 83.5 million acres could lead to an even tighter carryout unless the USDA finds more soybean acres.
  • Export sales have been active with total new crop sales up to 526 mb so far, and tomorrow’s weekly export sales are expected to be solid.
  • November soybeans on the Dalian exchange ended lower by 0.4% today, but are still very expensive at the equivalent of $18.80 per bushel.


  • Wheat posted solid gains yesterday but is starting the day softer. Yesterday’s rally may have been due to the attacks on Ukrainian port cities.
  • Russia has made it clear that they would not return to the Black Sea grain deal any time soon, but Ukraine appears to be letting ships carrying grain trickle out of their own humanitarian corridor.
  • Spring wheat harvest in the US is going well and will be helped along by a dry forecast for the northwestern US. In HRW wheat regions, upcoming rains will be needed to improve soil moisture.
  • Overnight there were no new attacks reported in Ukraine, but a blast was reported at Russian headquarters in Rostov, and Ukrainian forces are reportedly making progress against Russian forces.


Amanda Brill

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